July 17 Heat Advisory Severe Storm Risk And Flash Flood Watch Today

Saturday July 17 2021

Today is the last day of the current heat wave, and it is going to go out with a bang. Yesterday, Baltimore hit 98ºF and we may match it today. But the Heat Index will be 105ºF+.

Storms will erupt this afternoon through evening. There is a risk they turn severe. With ample moisture AND some slow movers, rainfall could push 2”/hour rates. As a result a Flash Flood Watch is in place as well.

See the radar simulation below for most likely timing in your location as this develops in the mountains at lunchtime, and reaches the beaches by midnight.

Morning Surface Weather

The heat dome will be forced out with a strong cold front. The timing aligning with the peak heat of the day will maximize the storm potential.

Weather Alerts Today

Heat Advisory: Where Index Values = 105ºF+

Severe Storm Outlook

Primarily Damaging Wind Over 60 mph, slight risk for large hail and isolated tornadoes.
Marginal Risk= There will be storms, but a lower chance they turn ‘severe’.

Note: This product is from NOAA and with recent events has underestimated the coverage of the worst weather. As you will see with the radar simulation below, there will be a line of storms in central and southern Maryland that looks intense. I expect the ‘marginal’ region is also worth paying attention to.

Flash Flood Watch: 2 PM to 2 AM Sunday

Rainfall rates may exceed 2 inches per hour

Radar Simulation —> slider

Storms will develop in the mountains at lunchtime.
Metro areas: Timing mid afternoon through dinner time.
Delmarva and Beaches: Storm time evening through midnight.

Reminder: This product helps with timing, but I have seen storms erupting an hour or so earlier with recent events. The coverage has also been under-represented. We may see more storms than shown here.

Weather Almanac: Climate Data

TODAY July 17

Normal Low in Baltimore: 67ºF

Record 58ºF in 1987

Normal High in Baltimore: 88ºF

Record 101º F 1988

Afternoon Temperature Forecast

7 Day Forecast

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