Flash Flood Watch Today: Compare 2 Simulations And Live Radar

Thursday June 3 2021

The atmosphere is juiced up and ready to dump some locally heavy rain. Some showers will develop during the afternoon, but the most activity and severe risk will be between 4 PM and 10 PM.

In this post you can compare two short range model simulations with the live radar and lightning today. This may be a cramp on after school sports or your outdoor plans.

UPDATE:

Storms have developed faster and more widespread than these models suggested.

Severe T’Storm Watch was issued on top of the Flood Watch.

Click here to see the latest update.

There will be another push of storms on Friday, but not as widespread.

While I believe the risk extends beyond this region, here is the Flash Flood Watch for central Maryland.

Flash Flood Watch

Potential Rainfall

One element we are exploring is the Precipitable Water. Here is the model product of how much moisture will be in the clouds.

However multiple cells can double this. Therefore the ‘potential’ will be between 2 to 4 inches of rain locally.

Severe Storm Risk

In addition to heavy rain, storms may produce dangerous lightning, wind gusts to 60 mph, hail over 1 inch diameter, and isolated tornadoes.

Satellite Loop “Sandwich Mode”

Here we see the color enhance cloud tops. There is plentiful moisture to west and south.

That southern moisture will play a role with the model simulations below.

Also note the circulation in the midwest as Low Pressure is enhancing the activity along this entire boundary.

Computer Model Simulations

Here are the HRRR and NAM Models sliders. They both highlight storms mainly west and north of I-95 this afternoon and evening.

The HRRR stalls the ling on I-95, keeping the souther areas dry.

The NAM brings this line south of Baltimore and also shows the added moisture into southern Maryland and the Beaches.

I wanted to show you both solutions, but leaning toward the NAM for validation.

HRRR Model —-> slider

NAM 3 Km Model —-> slider

Live Radar and Lightning

NAM Simulation Through Friday Evening:

The activity on Friday appears to be less extensive and push mainly south of Baltimore and Washington.

Sunshine State Of Mind

I am done with the cold and snow (for the season). I am embracing my wife’s mantra of Sunshine State of Mind.

This was designed by Shannon Berk and we will be wearing it through spring and to the beach.

Double Benefit: Proceeds will be split between our nonprofit Just In Power Kids and the development of my new weather website. That has been scheduled to be ready to launch in May.