Large Tornado Outbreak In The South Is Why We Expect A Warm Surge Thursday

March 23 2021

Severe weather season is here and the expected outbreak on the way may be the largest in a few years. To be honest, we have actually had a trend below average for tornadoes in the US.

This large storm on the weather map today is actually the precursor to what will develop.

I wanted to share this because we expect a surge of very warm air in the Mid Atlantic on Thursday and Friday. Wait until you see the maps below.

Often our early season heat is a byproduct of severe storms to our west. We will miss out on the severe weather, but it is inevitably going to make news headlines.

Tuesday Evening Surface Weather

At first glance, this might seem to be the culprit. But more energy will be following this system over the next two days.

Satellite Loop

The contrast of late winter cold and spring warmth often results in large circulation disruptions like seen here. It just looks too impressive, I had to share.

Jumping Ahead To Thursday

Yes, we will have rain in our region Wednesday, but we have nothing to complain about. First of all, the sun will pop out on Thursday and push in the 70s. Secondly, we can be grateful we are not in the path for severe weather. For those that are, there has been ample warning.

Thursday Afternoon Surface Forecast

The strong surface Low that will be responsible for the severe outbreak AND pumping in very warm air our way.

Severe Weather Outlook

The target zone will be in the lower Mississippi River Valley. This same area was in the deep freeze with snow and ice just a few weeks ago.

Below is a look at the parameters that are just about maxed out.

Jet Stream

Winds at 500mb (18,000 Ft) are forecast to reach 100 mph.

850mb Vortcity

This low level energy supports supercell development.

Helicity

This supports the spin in the atmosphere, allowing strong thunderstorms to rotate.

Surface Based CAPE

This supports Supercell development and possibly long track tornadoes.

Temperatures: How Warm Can It Get?

Thursday Afternoon

With all of this happening, warm air will surge the mid 70s into our region, with cooler 60s by the water.

*Average High is 57ºF

Friday Afternoon

The bulk of the energy will weaken and pass to our west up the Ohio Valley. We get the benefit of just a few early showers, then an ever warmer day! We could hit 80ºF for the first time this year.

*Record was 84ºF in 1921

Storm Animation

Putting this in motion, we can see the progress of the storm passing up the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Our next chance of rain will arrive with cooler air on Sunday.

Tornado Count

We are actually behind schedule compared to ‘average’ numbers to date. NOAA records shows that the last year and much of this decade has actually trended lower across the US.