Wednesday Evening Update
The same weather system that has brought a severe storm outbreak to the Southeast US will bring us a wide variety of weather. It’s March in the Mid Atlantic and just about everything will be thrown at us over the next two days.
There is a small chance that some thunderstorms reach Delmarva Thursday afternoon, but I want to focus on heavy rain timeline and the snow to follow. That last part needs a little extra explanation.
Wednesday Evening Surface Weather
Low Pressure moving out of Oklahoma is expected to reach us tomorrow. The severe storms are across the Gulf Coast states in the warm and humid part of the system. Severe storms include large hail and tornadoes. We will not get into that.
Meanwhile, colder air is turning the rain to a slushy snow north and west of Chicago. That is that part of the storm we expect Friday morning.
Here we see the Canadian GEM showing Low Pressure passing through our region. The heaviest rain should be morning to early afternoon. If there are any thunderstorms on Delmarva, it would be after 2 PM.
The colder air will transition the rain to snow Friday morning.
GFS Storm Timeline —-> slider
We should have moderate to heavy rain here by sunrise. The heaviest rain will be through the morning until early afternoon.
Friday Morning Snow —-> slider
The colder air and snow will be dropping south, behind Low Pressure. The heavier band is expected farther east across Delmarva.
Late Morning (with snow burst)
They heaviest snow band may briefly drop temps close to freezing on Northern Delmarva.
This product is what the GFS Model produces. I didn’t lead with this, because it id misleading.
Let’s keep a few things in mind:
- The ground is warm
- Even if temperatures get close to 32ºF, radiation from the higher sun angle gets absorbed by the pavement making stickage difficult.
There may be a slushy coating on the grass north of Baltimore where the snow may fall early enough. Also across northern Delmarva (away from the water), where the burst is expected to be briefly heavy and bring in colder air near freezing. The roads are most likely going to remain wet.
Rain Forecast Comparison
The general agreement is that we get between 1 to 2 inches of ‘rain’. Less expected farther south despite the risk of thunderstorms.
This is much needed after a very dry few weeks that prompted the fire danger last weekend.
NAM 12 Km Model
I will have a full update on both the rain and and changes to the snow expectations in my morning report. See you then.
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