Big Warm Up This Week Is False Spring Followed By False Winter

Sunday Evening March 7 2020

March is known for having wild swings in temperatures and a lot fo wind. There also has been growing use of a term that will apply very well this week: False Spring.

After this chilly weekend, we will have a warm up that brings the 70s into our region, but it will not last long.

I wanted to bring some additional attention to what will follow. Depending on the weather app or other source you follow, you may also see snow or a wintry mix in the long range forecast next Sunday or Monday. I see it as well, and it is very possible. But that also an asterisk * or further explanation.

False Spring Followed By False Winter

This is the time of year with big swings that keep us guessing what season it is.

Jet Stream Animation

March 8 to 15

Blue: Cold
Orang: Warm

We will notice the warm up beginning on Tuesday but the really ‘good stuff’ arrives Thursday and Friday. That’s the false spring as it will not last. We need to watch that chill returning next weekend into the following week. That is where it could get interesting, but false winter.

Temperature Trend From NOAA

Temperature Outlook

Forecast Animation

Friday March 12 to Monday March 15

Please see notes below

Close inspection and we see a clod front with rain showers Friday and Saturday appearing to stall near the Pennsylvania/Maryland line.
This is a Back Door Cold Front. Those slip down from the north to northeast and models often do not give them the credit they deserve to how far they can advance south.
Along this front, there is reinforcing energy Sunday night into Monday that shows up here as a wintry mix and snow showers.
March Weather Notes:
It can snow with temperatures above freezing. In fact it can snow with surface temps in the 40s as long as the air aloft is cold enough.
The ground in March warms much more from higher sun angle.
To get any snow to stick, it needs to be high intensity or fall at night. Even then, it is more likely to lay and stay on the grass but not the pavement.
We need to have a strong storm to overcome that warmer ground in March if there is to be any impact, and that becomes less likely as the calendar ages.

The moral:

Historically it is somewhat common to have a big warm up in the 70s, followed by wintry presentation, However, it is rare to get that wintry precipitation to have an impact like in mid winter. So take the long range forecast in stride and don’t let the hype lead the wagon.

I will follow it all week, and it will be fun to go from shorts to snow within a few days… My Faith in the Flakes is for what may fall… not too anxious (yet) about what could stick.

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