Friday Evening February 12 2021

As I mentioned in my last report, I expected the ice concerns in more of Maryland beyond the implied advisories. Since then, The National Weather Service has expanded the Winter Weather Advisory for counties along the northern Maryland border westward to the mountains. This coastal will not reach Garrett County with the same impact.

I drove through Baltimore around the beltway, and into Carroll County this afternoon. It was beautiful as a thick coating of snow remains on the trees. When we add a little ice to that, it might get ugly this weekend.

Southern Pennsylvania:  I believe you still should be on guard, but your local NWS Office in State College has not hopped on board. Light icing at least expected there.


When: Begins in the morning from south to north. Some icing during the day, but the biggest impact will be Saturday evening and overnight. This arrives sooner, and should end sooner on Sunday morning.

Winter Weather Advisory Expanded 

Added to the prior advisory  area are northern Harford, Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Washington, and Allegany Counties in Maryland along the PA boarder.

Ice Storm expanded advisory Feb 13



About The Ice Storm Warning

Southern Maryland (Charles and St. Mary’s) and SE Virginia: These are the same areas that got a few inches of snow last night, now set to get the heaviest ice this weekend. This region can get 0.25″ to 0.50″ of ice accumulation.


Snow From Part 2 last night into this morning.

This snow exceeded expectations with 4 inches or more in St. Mary’s County.  The storm track is set up to impact the same locations again.

February 12 weather snow reports Southern Maryland


How Much Ice? Compare Computer Model Forecasts

  • Yes, this is lower than the European Model showed two days ago.
  • Treat this the same.
  • *Recent trend has shown models pull back on precipitation, the ramp back up at the last moment.
  • All it takes is 0.10” to 0.25” to begin causing weigh issues on trees and power lines. When over 0.25” it id more like to lead to damage.


NAM 3 Km: Freezing Rain Ice Forecast

February 12 weather freezing rain Sunday morning NAM


GFS: Freezing Rain Ice Forecast


February 12 weather freezing rain Sunday morning GFS


Canadian: Freezing Rain Ice Forecast

February 12 weather freezing rain Sunday morning Canadian GEM


European: Freezing Rain Ice Forecast

February 12 weather freezing rain Sunday morning ECMWF



When will this begin? 

Saturday morning. It looks light, but as we saw with accidents in Texas yesterday, all it takes is a small glaze to be a big problem.  I do NOT want to exaggerate this, but definitely treat this with caution.

10 AM Saturday

Here the NAM 3 Km model shows sleet moving past Washington and Annapolis and into Baltimore.

Freezing rain (pink) expands through Virginia.


February 12 weather freezing rain ice storm Saturday AM 10




4 PM Saturday

Sleet expands through northern Maryland and Southern PA.

Freezing rain reaches to near Rt 50 along Washington and Annapolis.

February 12 weather freezing rain ice storm Saturday PM 4


Animation During This Time Frame

February 12 weather freezing rain Saturday


Saturday Evening

Atmospheric Memory: We see yes ANOTHER Low Pressure passing by the coast between Virginia Beach and Ocean City.


February 12 weather freezing rain ice storm Saturday Evening


Animation Saturday Evening and Ending Sunday Morning at 7 AM


February 12 weather ice freezing rain Valentines Day


7 AM Sunday Snapshot

This event should be ending before noon.


February 12 weather freezing rain ice storm Sunday AM 7



7 AM Sunday Temperatures

Temperatures may be near or below freezing for a wide area, including across Delmarva.


February 12 weather Sunday morning Temperatures




Take Away

  • This will be at least a moderate ice event.
  • Timing will begin Saturday morning from south to north.
  • Heaviest ice will be over the same areas that got snow last night into this morning.
  • Northern Counties not in an advisory now: Pay attention! Recent systems have verified north and I think this will impact you as well. 
  • This should end during Sunday morning after sunrise.
  • Expect More Advisories or Warnings to be issued north of what has been shown on the map above.


Grade My Forecast

Click the map to see the full report

February 11 Snow Spotter Reports Maryland NWS Sterling



Winter Precipitation

The surface air will be cold enough, while warmer air at cloud level allows for rain. This then falls into a closer layer near the surface.

Sleet: Bounces, since it refreezes on the way down.

Freezing Rain: Looks like rain, turns to ice on contact. This is actually more dangerous to weigh down trees and power lines.


Explore More: See all winter precip, more about Freezing Rain, and more winter weather terms

Winter Precipitation


Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

Twitter: @JustinWeather

Instagram: justinweather


Winter Outlook Series

Winter Outlook 2021 Tropical Hints

Winter Outlook Polar Vortex Arctic Oscillation

Winter Outlook Solar Minimum

Early Winter October

Winter Outlook Series Weather Folklore


Winter Outlook 2021 La Nina Advisory

Winter Outlooks Farmers Almanacs



14 Local Maryland Pages (and York PA)

We have made a page for Maryland Weather which gives you the current conditions for 14 present area locations.

Local Hourly Forecasts and Local Radar
Central Maryland



Bel Air

Carroll County/Westminster




Ocean City

Dover DE

Southern Maryland

Patuxent River 

Washington DC





National Weather Service Adds Maryland Cecil And Garrett Counties



FITF Shop Open

My ‘bonus’ daughter Jaiden and wife showing off our popular Maryland Hoodies. Unisex and women’s items all produced in Maryland.

Click here to see this and many other new items.

FITF MD Hoodie Jaiden


NEW Hoddies ShannonJaiden