Another Hurricane Forecast For New Orleans

October 4 2020

As of this year could be out of surprises, 2020 is about to serve up yet another storm for the Gulf of Mexico with New Orleans in the long range path. This will be the big weather story all week and our interests include the chance that rain heads our way next weekend.

As of this evening the storm is not named, but it is inevitable. With winds of 35 the system, it is referred to as Invest 92 and Potential Tropical Cyclone TWENTY-SIX will soon be Tropical Storm Delta. The National Hurricane Center has New Orleans in the path with this making landfall as a Hurricane by Friday.

We’ll look at the satellite, advisories, forecast maps, and the FIVE other tropical systems New Orleans had to worry about earlier this year.

Satellite Loop

Sunday Evening 2:25 PM to 7:15 PM

Storm Stats 8 PM Sunday

LOCATION...16.9N 76.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

National Hurricane Center Forecast

The depression is expected to be named on Monday. That will be Tropical Storm Delta when sustained winds are 40 mph or faster. This will pass over the Cayman Islands, then western Cuba en route to the US Gulf Coast.

While New Orleans is in the path, the cone of possibilities that far out covers a broad area.

See the computer model (spaghetti plots) forecast map below.

Forecast Wind Timeline

Arrival of Tropical Storm Force

Compared to the map above, please note the arrival of TS winds is expected earlier, on Thursday evening.

New Orleans Tropical Systems This Season

Not all of these made a direct hit. But they all had been forecast to impact New Orleans (in the yellow box) and preparations were made.

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Current Watches and Warnings

None for the US … yet…

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

Forecast Models

This is the first combined model plot and there is a lot of agreement! Notice that inland curve to the northeast. See the longer range forecast below.

How Strong Could This Be?

At this time the model guidance points to a Category 2. But with the very warm water in the Gulf of Mexico and recent over achieving flare ups… That is a rough estimate. It could potential be stronger.

GFS Forecast Animation: Rain For Us Next Weekend

The long range forecast brings heavy rain to us in the Mid Atlantic next weekend. It is still a little early to lock in on specifics. Keep in mind the actual storm has not been named yet, and then there is the plot to landfall first. But I would keep an eye on next weekend.

Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days

Atmospheric Memory Of Hurricanes Over Thousands Of Years Shaped The Coast

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