Weather Outlook Turns Chilly Next Week But Warm For Much Of October

September 23 2020

What is happening with the weather? Summer is not back, even though it may have felt like it this afternoon. The last few mornings felt like winter, and the air mass next week looks pretty chilly.

Just as we cleared the smoke from our sky, we got a record low temperature in Baltimore and three mornings in a row with regional frost. I didn’t even have a chance to discuss the 18ºF reading near Canaan Valley, WV yesterday morning. One day later, we hit the 80s. Just when you think summer is back, wait. This warm spell is not going to last long.

Recent Temperatures at BWI

Normal Low = 55ºF
Normal High = 75ºF

The only signal from this wide swing is that we are going to get more of both in the next four to five weeks. This is the time of year with wild fluctuations in the weather, and we should feel both ends of it.

Jet Stream:

Here we show a slice of the atmosphere around 18,000 Ft up. A Ridge is where warmer air resides. A Trough is where the cool air settles south. The air flow in between is the Jet Stream, where storms often travel. By next week, we can see an unusual dip all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. That will force another chilly air mass into the Eastern US.

The good news: It protects us from any potential tropical systems. However, the southern edge can often spawn tropical systems in the southern Gulf or western Caribbean.

Jet Stream Animation

Watch how this progresses from our current warm pattern to the chill over the next week.

NOAA Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center has sent what may be mixed messages. The short range outlook for next week is quite cool. But the bulk of October., according to them has a greater chance to end up warmer than normal.

Next Week

Next Month: October

October Extremes in Baltimore

Hottest: 98ºF (just last year)

Coldest: 25ºF

Temperature Outlook

Typical First Frost and Freeze

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