September 12 Weather This Weekend And Tropical Storms

Saturday September 12 2020

We are stuck with the wind from the east, which brings moisture off of the Atlantic Ocean. That is why we have morning clouds and some drizzle. We could break some sun at times, but temps will be a little cooler than average.

A more substantial change is expected next week, which will make it feel like early autumn.

Tropics: Two immediate threats to be concerned with. Tropical Depression Nineteen is over south Florida now. It is expected to be a Tropical Storm (Sally) and rich New Orleans next week.  Another storm is expected to reach Bermuda as a Category 2 hurricane. More on that below.

 

Afternoon Weather

Winds from the east will keep temperatures lower. While we may break for sun at times, there will be support to keep trying to build clouds, which should dominate again later in the day and tonight.

High Temperatures

 

Sunday: This should be a dry day, a change from the earlier thought of rain and storms. Temps will warm through Monday, then the next cold front will bring in cooler air.  This pattern should hold by the end of next week and that weekend.

 

Temperature Outlook 

 

Tropical Weather

We are at the peak of hurricane season. I heard one report on TV this morning highlighting 6 systems in the Atlantic. In reality, there are 3 to really be concerned with. One is Florida now is expected to grow as it heads towards New Orleans. Another may be a Category 2 hurricane hitting Bermuda in a few days.

 

Tropical Depression Nineteen

This storm over south Florida has 35 mph winds and is responsible for a 2 to 4 inch rainfall. This is expected to organize over the Gulf of Mexico to a tropical storm, and be named Sally.

There is a line of convection between this storm and New Orleans, which illustrate the path this storm will try to follow.

 

Saturday Morning Report from The National Hurricane Center

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 81.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Forecasts

Computer Model guidance shows the track over the Gulf of Mexico towards New Orleans over the next 72 hours (3 days).

 

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track/Cone

 

Computer Model: Intensity 

There is about a 40% chance this can become a hurricane before landfall.

 

Tropical Storm Paulette

Hurricane Watch for Bermuda

This looks a little ragged this morning, but computer guidance supports growth to Category 1 or 2 hurricane with a strike on Bermuda Monday.

 

Saturday Morning Report from The National Hurricane Center

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 56.8W
ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track/Cone

 

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📋Observations yesterday

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