Enhanced Severe Storm Risk Thursday

Wednesday September 3 2020

We had a late flare up of thunderstorms Wednesday evening that packed a punch of warnings across central Maryland and the Bay.  This may have been a preview for what we may have arrive on Thursday.

Here’s a look at the the storm line we just dealt with:

Wednesday Radar: 6 PM to 9 PM

Radar Snapshot

As of post time, the tail end of that storm line was still hitting central Delmarva hard! This will reach the beaches around midnight.

Evening Weather Set Up

There is a context frontal boundary poised to move through with the surge of energy from Low Pressure across the southern US.  That will arrive later in the day, after reaching near 90ºF with high dew points. Throw in a light southeasterly wind and we have the perfect set up for storms to develop and turn severe.

Severe Storm Outlook Thursday

Timing: 3PM through Midnight

Storm Risks: Damaging Wind; Large Hail;  Flash Flooding; Isolated Tornadoes

Radar Simulations

Compare the NAM 3 Km Model Slider to the GFS Model interaction simulation below.

Note: Computer models are guidance for timing and tracking. Often in a set up like this, it my miss some cells and not be precise.

NAM 3 KM —> slider