Laura Upgraded To A Hurricane Expected To Make Landfall As Cat 3

Tuesday August 25 2020

There is progress in the tropics a little faster than expected. Air Force Reconnaissance has found 75 mph winds, upgrading Laura to a hurricane. This is going to be a dangerous storm with favorable conditions to intensity rapidly today and tomorrow. Warm water and light winds aloft in the Gulf of Mexico will allow this to reach major hurricane intensity of at least Category 3 by landfall, with winds over 110 mph.

Hurricane Laura Satellite

 

Larua Impact Long After Landfall: Includes Rain For Us This Weekend

 

 

Sometimes storms can exceed model forecasts, and it will likely be in the strengthening phase upon landfall. That will make it more destructive, and allow for more impact farther inland. This includes the rainfall for our region this weekend.

 

Satellite Loop

Hurricane Laura circulation is increasing in size and intensity.

Hurricane Laura

Tropical Storm Force Winds reach 175 miles away from the center. Hurricane Force winds are around the immediate eye wall, but this will expand today.

This is a larger storm and will likely continue intensifying up to landfall.

Rain forecast: 

• Louisiana westward to east Texas: 4 to 8  inches with spots of 12 inches or higher. This will be dependent on the forward speed of the storm.

Storm Surge Forecast:

Peak surge 7 to 11 Feet (see below)

National Hurricane Center Stats

SUMMARY OF 715 AM CDT...1215 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...23.4N 86.4W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track/Cone

Forecast Watches and Warnings

These were issued before the upgrade to hurricane status.  These are likely to be upgraded shortly:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

High Island TX to Morgan City LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu
Lake, and Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX...4-6 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * San Luis Pass to Freeport Texas * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

Computer Model Forecast Tracks

 

Computer Model Forecast Intensity 

This model was 6 hours later with when reaching hurricane intensity. There is room for more growth than shown here.

Hurricane Larua

Forecast TS Wind Arrival Time

 

Forecast Animation:

Here is the HWRF Model projection showing the Low Pressure tracking inland than linking up with a cold front to turn into the Mid Atlantic.

Heavy rain locally could arrive late Friday, and most of Saturday.

 

 

Rain Forecast?

I don’t think the models are able to handle the intensity and impact yet. But it does look like we will have some downpours and severe storms on Saturday. I would make a general call for 1 to 3 inches for our region, with some higher amounts possible.

Compare the GFS and European Model forecasts

 

 

Tropical Related Posts

2020 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Names and Naming History

 

Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days

 

Maryland Weather 

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