TS Marco Landfall Laura Growing To Strong Hurricane With Similar Landfall Then Inland Track Our Way

Monday August 24 2020

The short version of this tropical look is that Marco is getting weaker and Larua is getting stronger. The second hit will pack the bigger punch.  Both impact the cost of Louisiana within about 36 hours of each other.

Looking at the two tropical storms this morning, they may be on paths to the same area but have two different futures.

Tropical Storm Marco has weakened. The energy has shifted to the northeast of the center. It will still have flooding impact on the Gulf Coast.

Laura is now the stronger storm, with the center over Cuba. But most of this activity is to the south over the water and spreading over a larger area. This now also has a longer range forecast to turn inland and reach the Mid Atlantic with heavy rain by this weekend.

Tropical Satellite

US Warnings: Tropical Storm Warning from Marco for coastal Mississippi and Louisiana.  Tropical Storm Warning from Laura for the Florida Keys.  As that storm gets closer, then new advisories for the Gulf coast will be issued.

 

Forecast Track Plot

Laura is now expected to become a strong or major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, reaching Category 2 or 3 before landfall on Louisiana. This will be in the vanity of the impact from Marco. After reaching landfall and being downgraded, the model guidance puts it over southern Maryland Saturday morning.

 

History

Only TWO times in recorded history were there two cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time of at least tropical storm strength (winds 39 mph +):

• September 5, 1933 (Treasure Coast & Cuba-Brownsville)
• June 18, 1959 (Unnamed and Beulah)

There were NEVER two hurricanes reported in the Gulf at the same time.

Fujiwara Effect

Two tropical systems can not combine to a larger storm. What may happen if they get close enough is a repel or orbit around each other.

 

Satellite Loop

Animation from Tropical Tidbits

 

Tropical Storm Marco

Warnings: Tropical Storm Warning from Marco for coastal Mississippi and Louisiana.

• Tropical Storm Force Winds reach  reach 105 miles.
• Rainfall Forecast: 3 to 5 inches, local amounts up to 10 inches
• Storm Surge 2 to 4 feet.

 

National Hurricane Center Stats

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 88.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track/Cone

Forecast Watches and Warnings

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for....
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

Computer Model Forecast Tracks

Tropical Storm Marco

Forecast Wind Arrival Time

 

 

Tropical Storm Laura

It’s getting larger!  Tropical Storm Force Winds reach 175 miles. This is a larger storm. It has been held back by crossing the islands of Hispanola.  After crossing Cuba tomorrow it should then have a chance to become the stronger of the two storms.

Rain forecast: 

• Florida Keys: 1 to 2 inches
• Louisiana to west Texas: 5 to 10 inches with spots up to 15 inches.

National Hurricane Center Stats

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 79.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track/Cone

Forecast Watches and Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

Computer Model Forecast Tracks

Tropical Storm Larua

Forecast Wind Arrival Time

 

 

Forecast Animation:

Here is the GFS Model projection showing the Low Pressure tracking inland than linking up with a cold front to turn into the Mid Atlantic.

Heavy rain locally would arrive Friday into Saturday with this scenario:

 

Tropical Related Posts

2020 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Names and Naming History

 

Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days

 

Maryland Weather 

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