Tropical Storms Laura and Marco Both Now Forecast Near New Orleans

Saturday August 22 2020

It almost seems as if nothing in 2020 would be a surprise. Now we have two tropical storms that may possibly become hurricanes an forecast to hit the same area of Louisiana early next week. This may be historic.

Tropical Storm Marco has winds of 65 mph and will arrive first. Tropical Storm Laura has winds of 50 mph and appears to be trailing behind by a day or two.  Both have the potential to reach hurricane intensity in the Gulf of Mexico before making final landfall on the US.

I want to share the latest official information and clarify some other things.

Tropical Weather Satellite

History 

Only TWO times in recorded history were there two cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time of at least tropical storm strength (winds 39 mph +):

• September 5, 1933 (Treasure Coast & Cuba-Brownsville)
• June 18, 1959 (Unnamed and Beulah)

There were NEVER two hurricanes reported in the Gulf at the same time.

Notes

First: Two tropical systems can not combine to a larger storm. What may happen if they get close enough is a repel or orbit governed by the Fujuwara Effect.

Second: It is possible the atmosphere is left with a weakness by the first storm, that allows the second to follow a similar path onshore.  That is the latest theory the computer guidance and the National Hurricane Center have on display. That area appears to be southern Louisiana near New Orleans. A Storm Surge and Hurricane Watch are in effect there.

Tropical Storm Force Wind Forecast

Satellite Loop

Tropical Storm Marco

I am starting with this since it will be arriving first, even though it was named last. Tropical storm force winds extend 90 miles from the center.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the a portion of the northern Gulf States. This is now forecast to reach the southern Louisiana coast Monday afternoon as a hurricane.

National Hurricane Center Stats

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 86.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track/Cone

Forecast Watches and Warnings

 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Province of Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

Computer Model Forecast Tracks

Tropical Storm Marco

Computer Model Forecast Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Storm Laura

This is now forecast to reach southern Louisiana Wednesday afternoon as a hurricane. This would be within two days of the Marco landfall in nearly the same area.

National Hurricane Center Stats

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 68.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track/Cone

Forecast Watches and Warnings

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, and Granma

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara,
Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar Del
Rio

It should be noted that the Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio is
still under a Tropical Storm Warning for Marco.

Computer Model Forecast Tracks

Tropical Storm Larua

Computer Model Forecast Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Related Posts

2020 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Names and Naming History

Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days

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