Two Developing Tropical Storms May Make History In The Gulf of Mexico

Thursday August 20, 2020

We are about to enter the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season over the next few weeks in an already very active season. The next few days will be both active and possibly historic. While we are looking at two tropical depressions now. One in the western Caribbean, the other in the western Atlantic Ocean. The timing of their development and track puts both of them as named storms in the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

This has only happened two times on record!

This may also introduce a rare event call Fujiwara, when two cyclones near each other can orbit around or influence the other track. That would depend on how strong and how close they may get. But they would not join forces into one bigger storm. Only in rare cases a smaller storm can get absorbed by a larger storm.

 

Thursday Evening Satellite Snapshot

Both Tropical Depression (T.D.) Thirteen AND Fourteen are forecast to be in the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday at 2 PM.

Only TWO times in recorded history were there two cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time of at least tropical storm strength (winds 39 mph +):

• September 5, 1933 (Treasure Coast & Cuba-Brownsville)
• June 18, 1959 (Unnamed and Beulah)

There were NEVER two hurricanes reported in the Gulf at the same time.

 

Satellite Loop

Race To Name

The next two names on the list are Laura and Marco. But T.D. Fourteen looks healthier than T.D. Thirteen this evening, even though it was identified later.  So it is a toss up with will get named first.

It’s important to note that a cyclone becomes an official Tropical Storm and gets a name when the sustained winds are 39 mph or higher.

 

Forecast Tracks:

National Hurricane Center and Computer Model Guidance

Note: I personally do not like to put too much stock in storm tracks before they get named. The timing and location when organized can make an impact on the future expectations. But NHC has plotted maps early. I have include associated computer model guidance for each system.

 

Tropical Depression  Thirteen

National Hurricane Center Forecast Plot

• Path north of Puerto Rico, Southern Bahamas, Florida Keys, then east of Tampa as a Hurricane.
• The last image is Tuesday at 2 PM

 

Computer Model Guidance

 

 

Tropical Depression  Fourteen

National Hurricane Center Forecast Plot

• Path across Honduras, near Cancun Mexico, then into the western Gulf of Mexico as a Tropical Storm.
• The last image is Tuesday at 2 PM, same as the last image for T.D. Thirteen’s forecast.

 

Computer Model Guidance

 

GFS Model Forecast Animation

It is important to note that two tropical cyclones at the same time will be tough to lock in with a forecast. They may or may not affect each other. But it is likely both will be affecting a wide area of the Gulf of Mexico at the same time.  So is the year 2020!

I am working on a new Tropical Weather Page so that you can see all the updates as they happen. Pleas keep checking back.

 

Tropical Related Posts

2020 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Names and Naming History

 

Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days

 

Maryland Weather 

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Maryland Strong Love ❤️ 

My ‘bonus’ daughter made this map of Maryland a few years ago. We brought it back for needed positivity. Now on her pick of tanks, and this cool Maryland T for men or women.

Click here or on the image to see more

This is all LOCAL: Made by Maryland Print House; Proceeds support my Maryland Trek 7 this August for Just In Power Kids.

 

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