August 3 Weather Upgrade To Warning For Tropical Storm Wind And Flash Flooding From Isais

Monday August 3 2020

Tropical Storm Isaias has been holding at 70 mph overnight and will try one more time to reach hurricane intensity briefly today before making landfall. But it will return to a tropical storm on land when it reaches us. The forecast path across the Chesapeake Bay through Maryland on Tuesday has pushed an upgrade from Watch to Warning for both tropical storm winds and flash flooding for parts of Maryland along the path.

There is a lot of information to share. Please see all the maps. I will break it down here and post frequent updates during the day.

Quick Cast:

Today: 🌦Showers begin mid afternoon. Temps = 80s

Evening/Night: ⛈Rain, some thunder.

Tuesday: ⚠️🌀⛈💦 Tropical Storm means Heavy rain, high winds, flooding. Peak Intensity 8 AM to 2 PM.

💨  Expect power outages, down trees, flying lawn furniture and debris. 🌪There may be isolated tornados near and east of the center.

 

Rain Today Not Directly From Isaias 

Radar Simulation —> slider

 

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Path

Latest Update Info and Forecast Maps are below

Notes:

• Landfall near the SC/NC border tonight.
• Strongest Storm Surge will be east of the center at landfall.
• Forward speed will increase as it passes over land.
• Path across the Chesapeake Bay mid day Tuesday.
• Some surge on the Bay but limited since the storm will be crossing land. So less water dragged in (not like Isabel).
• Full Moon today will add in astronomical high tides.

 

 

Tropical Storm Warnings And Watches

• Warning for wind gusts up to 70 mph. This is mainly for places east of the center of the storm.
• Watch for wind gusts likely 35 to 55 mph. This is around the immediate center and just west. Father west the winds will be less intense, but the rain will still be heavy.

 

Flash Flood Warnings And Watches

Flooding will come from heavy rain AND some storm surge up the Bay.

There will be more ‘sloshing’ due to winds and Full Moon high tides keeping water high.

 

Tropical Storm Isaias Update

Satellite Loop

Winds are 70 mph and it is now (once again) expected to regain hurricane intensity before making landfall tonight. It will return to a tropical storm inland before reaching us. 

 

Forecast Maps

HWRF Model Tracking The Center Of The Storm

HWRF Model:

Tracking across the Lower Eastern Shore late morning

 

GFS Model:

This model tracks the center farther north. Passing just south of the Bay Bridge and into northern Delmarva.

 

ECMWF Model:

This model is slower, with a passage of the center of Isais near the Bay Bridge in the early afternoon.

 

NAM 3 Km Radar Simulation —> slider

 

July 2020 The hottest on record. Will it hint at snow this winter?