July 28 Weather Flood Watch For Metro DC and Storm Simulaiton Update

Tuesday July 28 2020

A cold front is beginning to cross our region this afternoon. As a result of interacting with the very warm and humid air, showers and strong thunderstorms are expected. The short range models HRRR and NAM 3 Km both agree the the bulk of the activity will cross metro Washington DC. That is why a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for that city and surrounding counties.

Flash Flood Watch Through 11 PM

 

Forecast Notes:

Baltimore appears to get clipped on the edge of this cluster. But there has been limitations of these models, with a trend to expand the potential impact of storms a little north of shown.

Showers will be scattered across central Maryland and southern PA this afternoon in addition to the cluster near Washington DC.

Here is a look at the conditions and both model simulations to compare. We will watch the flare up of storms between 4 PM and 9 PM, but allow an extra hour cushion before and after for model error.

 

Satellite Loop

 

Temperatures at 2 PM

There is definitely some cooler air trying to move in behind the front. Those 60s in the mountains will not reach our region during the day, but we should cool down over the next few nights.

 

Radar Snapshot 

Radar Simulaitons

HRRR Model —> slider

NAM 3 Km Model —> slider