Wednesday July 8 2020
We are in another hot and humid afternoon, but that does not always promise thunderstorms. The mechanism to produce storms is to our north, so the action will be limited. The radar showed some storms trying to develop between noon and 1 PM, the short range models didn’t pick up on well. So the afternoon may be worth a little extra attention NORTH of Baltimore.
Looking SOUTH however, we see that Low Pressure off of South Caroline that now has a 70% chance to become tropical in the next few days as it rolls up the coast. The local impact for beaches (and maybe inland) will be Thursday evening into Friday. Here’s the latest.
1 PM Doppler Radar
Short Range Models
Both the HRRR and NAM 3 Km models showed a little flare up in northern Frederick County, but missed the show near Bel Air. The expectation for this afternoon is low. But the guidance is not perfect, so we may see a fee more cells pop without notice. The best chance will one NORTH of Baltimore into Southern PA.
Satellite Loop
The development and movement of the clouds shows up really well here on the visible loop. The flood is form the south to north…
Tropical Development: Looking SOUTH
The National Hurricane Center has increased the potential for this Low to turn tropical and get a name up to 70%.
The name would be Fay, and the track would be across OBX, then close to the Delmarva coast Friday.
Mesoscale Analysis
The regional observations show the Low Pressure forming, but a broad and unorganized cluster of rain. This would fill in and become more centralized if we get that development over the next two days.
Forecast Pressure and Winds
There is a lot of wiggle room to the forecast, but the latest track is closer to the coast, and over Ocean City, MD Friday morning.
If this develops, winds would likely be minimal (40 to 50 mph), but enough to dump some locally heavy rain and keep up rip currents for a few days.
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