Friday June 5 2020
Another round of thunderstorms are expected today. Temperatures will be a little lower and the storms may be less intense. There is still a chance of a few cells turning severe. But the biggest risk will be the slow movement and repeated storms leading to flash flooding.
The ground is already saturated after a record 2.18″ of rain fell at BWI yesterday. This broke the old record of 1.26″ in 1891.
Severe Storm And Flooding Risk Today
Less than 20% of storms may turn severe. This includes winds over 58 mph, large hail over 1″ diameter, or an isolated tornado.
Flash Flooding: Rainfall between 1 and 3 inches possible
Morning Set Up
IR Satellite
That thin line of high clouds to our west will be the focus for storms today. The slow movement is the main concern to produce heavy rain and flooding.
Surface Observations
Once again we have a Southeast wind by the Chesapeake Bay. Like yesterday, this can help to enhance storms in metro areas.
Forecast High Temperatures This Afternoon
Radar Simulation (sliders)
Bot the NAM 3Km and HRRR Models shows the first round developing between 2 and 4 PM. They may differ in the follow through. Neither model is perfect. But the similarities show the slow moving cells that will lead to flooding. Also, the rain is likely to last through midnight, with stronger cells reaching the lower eastern shore after midnight.
NAM 3 Km Model —> slider
HRRR Model —> slider
Climate Report Today
Record Rainfall set in Baltimore at BWI
See the Weather Observations and Climate Report from this morning for more info about:
📋Observations yesterday
🌡 Climate data today
💦 Record rainfall in Baltimore
🗺 Weather Map
☀️ Sunrise and sunset times
🌙 Moon phase
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Maryland Trek 7
This will go on this August! Let’s hope social distancing will be a memory then. One way to celebrate would be to become part of my team:
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Was Your County Not Included?
I wrote this to explain the NWS forecast zones. In November 2020, Cecil County will be switched to join the rest of central Maryland under NWS Sterling VA Office command.
Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones
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