Sever Thunderstorm Watch Today But Better Chance In Maryland Tonight June 3

Wednesday June 3 2020

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 3 PM. This follows a cluster of storms in central PA dropping to the southeast. The primary risk will remain north of the Mason-Dixon Line, but could clip Harford and Cecil Counties in Maryland. These cells are racing at 50 to 60 mph, so they are likely to pass before the expiration time.

The primary risk is damming winds over 58 mph. But also, large hail, danger lighting, flash flooding, and and isolated tornado is possible.

Another line of storms will develop late afternoon and this evening that will drop south into central Maryland. With the high heat expected today, the energy will be around after dark that needs to be monitored.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

This will impact mainly central and southern Pennsylvania. But northeaster Maryland could get the tail end of this line of severe storms before 3 PM.

Note: A Watch means it might happen; A Warning means it is happening now!

 

Morning Radar

3 Hours ending at 11:20 AM

 

Doppler Radar Snapshot at 11:30 AM

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued up to 12:15 PM for York and Lancaster Counties in PA.  The storms were building ahead of the line, that may track into northern Baltimore/Harford and Cecil Counties in MD.

Note: The short range models did NOT show this line very well. There is a limitation to our guidance today. So relying on nowcasting (tracking as new cells develop) will be key.

3 PM Snapshot

As we can see here, these two short range high resolution models do not have storms in the vicinity at this time.  Scroll down for the timeline of the next line of storms that will be more impactful to our region.

 

 

Severe Weather Parameters

High Temperatures

 

Winds

A westerly wind often protects central Maryland due to down sloping from the mountains. That can stabilize the air east of Frederick. But other factors can overcome that.

 

K-Index

 

Shear

This is what can cause storms to rotate. That does NOT promise a tornado, but can enhance cells to increase winds and hail potential.

 

Radar Simulation (Evening) —> slider

 

Was Your County Not Included?

I wrote this to explain the NWS forecast zones. In November 2020, Cecil County will be switched to join the rest of central Maryland under NWS Sterling VA Office command.

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones

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