Tropical Storm Cristobal Named In Gulf Sets New Record

June 2 2020

In the southern Gulf of Mexico, a newly named Tropical Storm Cristobal is in rare company. This is the earliest on record for a third named storm in the Atlantic basin.

This is also the first time in 10 years a tropical system from the Pacific reformed with a new name in the Atlanic basin. This was Tropical Storm Amanda in the Pacific on May 30. It made landfall in Guatemala on May 31 with 40 mph, which dissipated across the central American mountains. It reemerged on June 2 now with the name Cristobal. 

Pacific To Atlantic Crossover Tropical Storm Cristobal Map

 

Other Crossover Storms

In 2010 it was Tropical Storm Hermine That hugged the western Gulf of Mexico and ended up flooding Texas.  This storm is farther east and worth watching. 

There are 20 documented storms on record since 1842 that have made the cross over from one ocean to another in the Western Hemisphere. Only six of them, or 30% started in the Pacific. More often then transform the other way.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Satellite

Visible Satellite (close)

The circulation is over the southern portion of the Gulf of Mexico, The Bay of Campeche

 

IR Satellite (wide view)

National Hurricane Center Update

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 92.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

FLOODING
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over
parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche.  The
depression is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other Mexican states,
Quintana Roo and Yucatan.

IR Satellite (loop)

 

National Hurricane Center Update

FORECAST NOTE

Long range forecasting has been impacted by COVID19. A lot of data is fed into computer models by commercial flights around the globe. Less flights has resulted in less data and less reliable long range forecsts.

The National Hurricane Center sill deploy Air Force Reconnaissance Missions and additional Weather Balloons as the storm gets stronger and closer. This will improve the forecasting and may at that time adjust the expected track and timing. 

Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast

 

Forecast Models Intensity

 

Forecast Model Tracks

 

Long Range Potential: ‘TS Cristobal’

This animation is from the GFS Model. I want to point out that it is unlikely this will verify completely. But this is one potential for the storm to track north and intact the US. Any change in intensity and timing will magnify the change in track and impact next week.

It is worth watching for two this evolves and tracks to link up with Mid Latitude systems.

 

Morning Weather Forecast

Severe Storm Risk Tuesday

 

 

Related Posts

2020 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Names and Naming History

 

Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days

 

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