May 16 Weekend Weather Cool Down And Tracking Tropical Storm Development

Saturday May 16 2020

A cold front is moving through the region, but not a lot of rain with it. The clouds and shift in wind should keep temperatures today in the mid 70s to near 80ºF. But there is a lot of action on the weather map that is expected to merge forces to bring us extended rain next week.

Low Pressure east of Miami may get named subtropical storm Arthur this weekend. New model forecast plots bring it closer to the coast, but it will be the residual effects that feed into a stalled pattern over us most of next week.

Morning Weather Map

 

Notes:

• The cold front should stall and help focus the other systems over our region.
• Low Pressure east of Miami may develop into a formal tropical system this weekend. This will roll up the coast, and may be close enough to clip the Carolinas. It is still expected to pass east of Maryland and Delmarva.
• Low Pressure in southeast Texas dumped 5 inches of rain on Houston that led to flooding last night. This will feed moisture along the front that will bring us more rain next week.

 

Temperatures 

Saturday Afternoon

Sunday Morning

Sunday Afternoon

There is a 20% chance for a shower or thunderstorm.

 

Tropical Weather

The National Hurricane Center has an 80% chance for development and naming this storm Arthur this weekend.

 

HWRF Model Forecast Animation

This shows the Low getting close to Cape Hatteras, NC… Then moving east.

Related Posts

2020 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Names and Naming History

 

Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days

 

Forecast Maps

Low Pressure plotted by the European Model is similar to the HWRF Model above. This brings this closer to Cape Hatteras, then moving east into the Atlantic.

Monday Afternoon

 

Tuesday Afternoon

 

GFS Model: Monday Afternoon

The GFS Model keeps this closer to the coast and brings it south of Long Island.  If this was to happen, the water along the path would be cooler. That would limit development, but still bring rough waves and high winds along the coast.

But lingering rain with an upper level pattern is likely to get stuck over us during most of the week.

 

Storm Animation

I am showing the GFS Model to see this closer track, but especially the heavier rain lingering behind it.

 

Temperature Outlook

Cooler weather next week. The specifics will depend on the wind direction and rainfall. Strong late. May sun can compensate for cloud cover. The impact of that upper level low the gets stalled will determine that.

 

Email Updates

Please make sure you sign up (above or  click here to sign up for email alerts…. ) for my newsletter. This way you will get an email to make sure you are notified of each post.

 

 

 

 

Water Spout OR Scud Cloud on videos and photos near Middle River Maryland