May 13 Weather Warming Up And Now Watching Possible Tropical Formation

Wednesday May 13

It really may seem like we are jumping seasons when you read this weather report.  We just had snow showers over the weekend and ending what may be our last local Frost Advisory this morning. Temps will be warming a little today, then jumping to the 80s on Friday.  But off of the southeast US coast there is a high chance for a tropical-like system to form. The impact we need to track would be high waves for the coast and a cooling wind off the ocean next week.

Quick Cast:

Today: Sunny and back to the 60s

Friday: Warming to the 80s. T’showers overnight.

Saturday and Sunday: Scattered showers. Not a washout.

 

This Morning

There was some light frost. But at 7 AM, many areas were already recovering back into the 40s.

 

This Afternoon

 

Weather Collection Lab

Yesterday’s Observations. Today’s Climate Report, Sun Times, and Moon Phase

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Thursday Temperatures 

Normal Low in Baltimore is 51ºF, so we will be close to where we should be.

 

Normal High in Baltimore is 73ºF, so we are still below.

 

Friday’s Warm Up

• Mid 80s across the I-95 corridor!
• I think the northern suburbs may still reach 80ºF despite the model display here.
• Interior Delmarva will be near 80ºF as well.
• Note: The cooler water on the bay will keep shoreline areas 10 degrees cooler.

 

 

Friday Rain (Up North)

The line of showers and storms should be in central PA and far western Maryland by midnight. This will drop south and fade overnight. Most of the day locally will be dry!

Saturday and Sunday may have scattered showers, but should not be a washout.

 

Tropical Development?

The National Hurricane Center has identified over 60% chance for a slow moving Low passing off of the coast and spinning up over the next 5 days. This could be a named storm (Arthur). Winds need to be 39 mph or stronger to be named a tropical storm. However a depression with 35 mph can still lead to locally heavy rain and coastal flooding.

 

The European ECMWF Model has plotting a 70% chance for at least a Tropical Depression forming over the weekend. This does not guarantee it will be a named storm, but cyclonic development.

 

Why is this important?

The track of whatever forms will move Northeast and stay offshore. But the winds will wrap back onshore and could be strong.

The result: Coastal Flooding/Erosion and cooler winds early next week.

 

WW3 Wave Model Animation

Watch the slow development this weekend then move north. The winds will increase off of the Mid Atlantic coast Monday through Wednesday.

 

Coastal Winds Next Tuesday

 

Impact On Our Weather….

The wind increase form the east and northeast will take a bite out of our expected warm up. So instead of mid 70s, we could end up back in the 60s next week across central Maryland and surrounding region.

 

Temperature Outlook 

 

 

 

 

 

Water Spout OR Scud Cloud on videos and photos near Middle River Maryland