Freeze Warning May Challenge A Record Low And Chilly Pattern To End The Month

Tuesday April 21 2020

We have another Freeze Warning in effect for tomorrow morning. This is nothing new lately. In fact we’ve had a few of these a week.  But the forecast low temperature in Baltimore could reach a record that was set 145 years ago. Earth Day 2020 will be cold for much of the eastern US.

This is far from the end of the chill. If we had this weather pattern in January or February, we would have easily hit my seasonal snowfall mark.  An active storm track will bring us two more chilly rain events Thursday through Sunday.  But what follows will continue to look like winter on the weather maps at least through the end of the month.

Freeze Warning Wednesday April 22

 

Forecast Low Temperatures 

Baltimore numbers for April 22 at BWI Airport:

• Normal Low = 45ºF
• Record = 32ºF in 1875 (145 years ago)

May 11, 1966 was the latest calendar date a freezing temperature was recorded. 

This HRRR Model forecast shows the forecast of 33ºF for BWI. There are many areas just inland from the Chesapeake Bay that will be within a few degrees of freezing. This set up can is likely to show a much wider range of temperatures on local thermometers.

At the time of this post, the 8 PM observation had a dew point of 22ºF at BWI. This means there is a lot more room for the thermometer to drop close to that level if the winds can go light for a few hours.

 

Afternoon Temps

It is still too early to plant for many areas, but a thaw happens quickly in the morning. The late April sun is strong but will only get us to the 50s in the afternoon.

 

Looking Ahead…

For the purpose of this post, I will skip past our next few storm systems.  They will be rain for us, but a chilly rain and can be found in my earlier forecast post.

The Climate Prediction Center released their latest outlook that shows our well below normal trend for the next 6 to 10 days. But it will last longer than that.

 

Jet Stream

The jet stream is what will continue to look like a strong winter pattern for us. Here is a look at the European Model next Thursday. That is the end of the month, but if it was a few months earlier, below snow hounds would be salivating. That is some mighty chilly stuff!!!

 

 

Jet Stream Animation

This animation goes through Sunday May 3. The cold trough (Blue) shows a persistence and regeneration through then.

 

How Long Will This Last?

It would be easy to suggest we remain on the cooler side of things for the next two weeks at least. The CPC longer range projections show the Great Lakes holding below normal through mid May. We are on the edge of that, so can’t rule out more surges of showers along the way.  Ironically it is below normal temperatures interacting with warming spring sun and southern air masses that can lead to more severe storm outbreaks at times.

This will remain an active weather set up for a while.

 

 

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Also See: When is the typical last freeze or frost?

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Water Spout OR Scud Cloud on videos and photos near Middle River Maryland