Thursday February 20 2020

The weather map this morning looks like I expected to see often the winter. We have colder air in place and a developing winter storm. But this will be tracking to our south. The bulk of the snow is expected to hit eastern North Carolina hardest.

Morning Water Vapor Satellite

The flow of moisture and high clouds will spread or way today.  I will watch this closely for any northern shift aloft.

Morning Surface Weather

 

Before fellow snow lovers get upset or travelers get concerned, we must consider that areas has warmer ground and temperatures will be hovering near or above freeing. The full potential of snowfall will not be realized, but the timing overnight will allow for some impact on the roads.

Below is a special look with a focus on that storm. I still have to consider the modeling error and a bump north. But the most I can see are flurries into Central Maryland this evening and perhaps a trace of snow in Southern Maryland tonight.

 

Morning Temperatures 

 

Thursday February 20, 2020 in Baltimore

Average High:  46ºF

Record High: 76ºF in 2018

Average  Low: 27ºF

Record Low:  1ºF in 12015

                      *Record Snow 9.9″ in 1947

Sunrise: 6:52 AM

Sunset 5:48 PM  

*Daylight = 2:26 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 42ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 

 

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Snow Storm Animation

See model comparison snow snapshots below

 

Model Comparison Snow Snapshots

The modeling shows the northern edge of snow breezy into southern Maryland. I have noticed an error I pointed out earlier this week where the verification was north by 100 miles. Fro that reason, I’ve included the chance for flurries possibly reaching central Maryland. No stickage expected there.

7 PM Thu: NAM 3Km

 

7 PM Thu: European ECWMF

 

7 PM Thu: Canadian GEM

 

Temperatures

This Must Be Considered for stickage, melting, and freezing overnight.

Mid Afternoon temperatures mainly in the mid 30s

 

Midnight temperatures near freezing. This is when moderate snow can stick, where the bulk will be in eastern North Carolina and SE VA.

 

Friday Morning will be below freezing in the snow zone.  The warm ground will battle the colder air and see icing is possible. Intestates should be treated enough for limited impact.

 

Friday Afternoon mode of the region will be in the mid to upper 30s. If there are any road problems, they will thaw in the daylight.

 

Snowfall Potential

Since I showed the NAM 3 Km Model, I wanted to start with that snow projection.

This is likely OVERDONE and does not account for melting on the warmer ground.

 

Most Likely Snow Potential

 

Extended Outlook?

I will post that later today. But if you missed my report last night, here is a look at the Baltimore history of snowless February(s) and winters when March brought the most snow:

Click here to see more: March Snow After Winter Has Been Slow

 

 

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WEATHER WIFE COLLECTION

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Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall Winter 2019-2020

 

 

   

 

Snowy Winters Following A Hot and Dry September

 

NOAA Winter Outlook Leaves Room For More Snow With Mild ‘Seasonal Average’ Temperatures

 

 

 

 

Other  Links:

See the maps for when we normally expect the first frost in this link.

Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported

Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.

 

 

Was Your County Not Included?

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones

 

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