Tuesday January 28 2020

The weather map this morning once again looks quiet and our temperatures are cold but above average.  The trend for the next few days will be a little colder, just ahead of the weekend.  The chance for a wintry mix of snow and rain for our region is still a possibility on Saturday.

As I have been saying for months, the computer model guidance has been poor. The two main models are not in agreement, but both show signals that keep this story up for attention. One is pushing the coastal event to bring snow for our normally colder suburbs. See more below.

Tuesday Morning

Temperatures

Tuesday January 28, 2020 in Baltimore

Average High:  42ºF

Record High: 70ºF in 1949

Average  Low: 25ºF

Record Low:  -3ºF in 1987

                      *Record Snow 233.3″ in 1922

Sunrise: 7:17 AM

Sunset 5:21 PM  

*Daylight = 1:56 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 40ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 

 

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This Afternoon

 

Wednesday Temperatures 

 

 

Looking Ahead:

The jet stream this weekend will play an important role with the next storm. Timing is everything. Here we see the core of the cold air Saturday evening over eastern Ohio.

The trough over our region will interact with a coastal system.  The question has been if it will be close enough to pull it back towards the coast. If the upper Low (cold core) arrives earlier, then that storm would organize better and bring steady snow to parts of our area earlier Saturday. If it arrives a little later, then the coastal storm would miss us and the upper energy would just bring some scattered showers Saturday night.

 

GFS Model:

Showing the timing connecting = Storm

This model phases the energy from the upper low to the west and the coastal system. That develops the storm we see here.

 

ECWMF (European Model):

Showing the timing missing = No Storm

This model keeps the coastal energy and the upper low missing each other by less than 1 day. However, this does pull the coastal system closer than it showed yesterday. I am watching more for the trend than the result. The trend is supporting this has a chance, even though it currently shows a miss below.

 

The upper low brings in showers with a wintry mix at night, but after the coastal system has moved farther away.

 

 

Temperature Outlook

 

 

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WEATHER WIFE COLLECTION

  • Thanks to Shannon (weather wife) for hand picking items ‘she’ wants to wear
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FITF Store: Weather Wife

 

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall Winter 2019-2020

 

 

   

 

Snowy Winters Following A Hot and Dry September

 

NOAA Winter Outlook Leaves Room For More Snow With Mild ‘Seasonal Average’ Temperatures

Other  Links:

See the maps for when we normally expect the first frost in this link.

Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported

Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.

 

 

Was Your County Not Included?

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones

 

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