Tuesday January 28 2020
The weather map this morning once again looks quiet and our temperatures are cold but above average. The trend for the next few days will be a little colder, just ahead of the weekend. The chance for a wintry mix of snow and rain for our region is still a possibility on Saturday.
As I have been saying for months, the computer model guidance has been poor. The two main models are not in agreement, but both show signals that keep this story up for attention. One is pushing the coastal event to bring snow for our normally colder suburbs. See more below.
Tuesday January 28, 2020 in Baltimore
Average High: 42ºF
Record High: 70ºF in 1949
Average Low: 25ºF
Record Low: -3ºF in 1987
*Record Snow 233.3″ in 1922
Sunrise: 7:17 AM
Sunset 5:21 PM
*Daylight = 1:56 longer than yesterday
*Bay Water Temperature = 40ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House
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The jet stream this weekend will play an important role with the next storm. Timing is everything. Here we see the core of the cold air Saturday evening over eastern Ohio.
The trough over our region will interact with a coastal system. The question has been if it will be close enough to pull it back towards the coast. If the upper Low (cold core) arrives earlier, then that storm would organize better and bring steady snow to parts of our area earlier Saturday. If it arrives a little later, then the coastal storm would miss us and the upper energy would just bring some scattered showers Saturday night.
Showing the timing connecting = Storm
This model phases the energy from the upper low to the west and the coastal system. That develops the storm we see here.
ECWMF (European Model):
Showing the timing missing = No Storm
This model keeps the coastal energy and the upper low missing each other by less than 1 day. However, this does pull the coastal system closer than it showed yesterday. I am watching more for the trend than the result. The trend is supporting this has a chance, even though it currently shows a miss below.
The upper low brings in showers with a wintry mix at night, but after the coastal system has moved farther away.
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WEATHER WIFE COLLECTION
- Thanks to Shannon (weather wife) for hand picking items ‘she’ wants to wear
- The Yoga Pants have side leg pocket for your phone
- The Hoodie is extra soft and has the important ‘thumb holes’
Winter Outlook Series:
See the maps for when we normally expect the first frost in this link.
Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported
Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.
Atmospheric Memory Shaped The US East Coast
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