Wednesday January 22 2020

We are still in the deep freeze this morning, but the next storm on the way will arrive with a warm up. Once again this may seem like a waste of cold air, but at least the local ski mountains have been making snow. I was with my boys at Roundtop in York County last night and the conditions were great!  This weekend, western Maryland’s Wisp will get some heavy wet snow. But that does not help locals with Faith in the Flakes.  Winter still has time.

This morning is the first time all winter the Chesapeake Bay water temperature at Thomas Point was in the 30s.  It will however warm up this weekend.

Meanwhile in Florida, temperatures dropped into the 30s and 40s prompting The National Weather Service in Miami to alert for falling Iguanas. See more below.

Wednesday Morning Weather

 

 

Morning Temperatures

Southern Florida

This was really a thing issued by NWS Miami.

 

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This Afternoon

It will be sunny and quiet, allowing for a slight warm up

 

Thursday

 

 

Weekend Storm

Warmer air will move in, but there is this stubborn pocket of cold air that gets cut off from the jet stream. This will allow for snow at higher elevations (western Maryland/PA mountains). But the precise track of the core will determine how close that wet snow can make it.

 

Snow Vs. Rain

At this point, the wet snow appears to be confined to the highest mountains above 2,500 Ft. This includes Wisp and Seven Springs Ski Areas.

This is also the time where computer models often do their flip. I’ve seen the track of the Low shift west, but the next two days may plot back east. This could spread the snow a little closer.

I do not expect this will reach metro areas. But the colder suburbs in the foothills that still could get in on the flakes. While temps will be above freezing, at this time it would be more for ambiance and not a travel concern.

 

 

Storm Animation

If this Low projection behaves like many prior events, then the models will shift this a little south, east, and sooner.

This is an exercise in computer model assessment. So use this animation as I will compare the next few to see if we get that Low to not track over central Maryland, but south of Baltimore.  Reminder that the computer guidance has NOT been good for a while. So if we can stay one step ahead, we can anticipate what the error might be to make better judgement calls.

 

Rain Total

This does include melted snow for total precipitation.

Most of the rain will fall Friday night into Saturday morning. But showers may continue into Sunday.

 

Temperature Outlook

Where is the cold air?  The jet stream relaxes and temps will be just slightly above average next week.

 

 

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