Sunday January 19 2020
The storm is moving out but looks very complex on the surface weather map this morning. We did get into milder air overnight to help with the thaw, but arctic air will try to move in with gusty winds this afternoon. Cold air dominates for a few days. The next storm will be next weekend. I do not have much confidence in modeling, so if the bias shows again, this could be something to watch.
Snow Report: BWI only received a Trace of snow. The season total there is 1.8″. Normal to date is 6.8″
Sunday January 19, 2020 in Baltimore
Average High: 41ºF
Record High: 69ºF in 1951
Average Low: 24ºF
Record Low: 5ºF in 1994
*Record Snow 7.7″ in 1961
Sunrise: 7:23 AM
Sunset 5:11 PM
*Daylight = 1:36 longer than yesterday
*Bay Water Temperature = 42ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House
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As the arctic air arrives, it will last for a couple of days. The long range outlook has this lifting out by the end of the work week. If so, then we get back to seasonable air temperatures return by Thursday and set up water air for the next storm next weekend.
The European Model is showing a storm traveling from Illinois to Maryland Saturday.
The will likely NOT verify as shown now in the 174 hour forecast. No forecast 1 week away has been precise, so there will be a change with what is shown now.
What can change:
Model bias arriving too soon. If this does speed up, like our last few storms have, then the track would be farther south. The result would be a colder track and put snow or a wintry mix in play. I will watching for hints of this trend.
The warm up is dependent upon that storm track. I would not put much credit on the long range you seen in any app or one model at this time.