Saturday January 18 2020

The Winter Weather Advisory kicks in this morning as the first wave of snow moves in. Almost all is working out so far with the exception of one thing. There is a lot of cold air to support stickage, but dry air fighting this.  Reminder that Part 1 will only last 1 to 3 hours for most. Part 2 is the more widespread ice event this afternoon.


As expected, we have widespread temperatures in the mid 20s, even in southern Maryland.

Morning Radar

This event will verify in most areas with the coating or more of snow. But some in the south get more and some in the middle get less.

  • Snow spread farther out to the south, but the line thinned out crossing Frederick. This initial batch may end up heavier in Southern Maryland and lower Delmarva between Easton, Salisbury, and Ocean City.
  • But for parts of central Maryland between Frederick, Germantown, and Columbia this Part 1 may look like bust.


At 7:30 AM- The line filled back in just as it reached Baltimore

8 AM

8:15 AM Update:

There was a lot of ‘Virga’ in the initial band. Despite how heavy it looked on radar, it has been fighting the dry cold air. When it broke, it quickly went from nothing to moderate snow in minutes (under that band).
*You may think it’s a bust, but hang on for the ice on the way*
What that tells me is that the cold will try to hold longer. This may result in more icing during the day for more areas.
Winter Weather Advisory lasts ALL DAY

Things are progressing sooner. The ‘Lull” is already trying to fill in across the mountains and MD/PA line. Spotty precip may continue off and on across northern areas.
Metro Washington to Baltimore I’m watching for the sleet/mix showers to return possibly by noon.
At these temps, whatever falls will stick.

Radar Simulation —> slider

Part 1: 7 AM to 2 PM

  • The model (not perfect) does not show the thinning or splitting of the line.
  • Southern edge will bring enough snow and sleet to southern Maryland and the beaches for impact.
  • Northern counties get less of a lull, so snow and sleet fill in quickly keeping the precipitation and icing going especially north of Baltimore.
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2 PM Temperatures 
Winter Weather Advisory
The real problems will be in the areas that remain below freezing during Part 2

Radar Simulation —> slider

Part 2: 3 PM to 8 PM

The sleet and freezing rain will expand quickly during the afternoon. This is the time extensive icing is expected and travel problems in the Advisory areas west and north of Baltimore.

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Evening Temperatures
After the precipitation ends, these areas will remain below freezing and keep the ice around overnight.
Sunday Morning Temperatures 

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My Call For Snowfall (and ice)


  • The timing is critical! Earlier arrival means more impact for all.
  • Plan for the start between 7 AM and 10 AM
  • Snow Burst or ‘Thumping’: Arrival of snow can come with a push of moderate intensity.
  • The warmer Chesapeake Bay will play a role in stickage, but the initial push should coat the roads and impact travel during the morning.
  • The transition from snow to sleet and freezing rain in metro areas will be between 11 AM and 2 PM. Then rain to follow before evening.
  • More Snow North! The colder air will last longer (blue shading). This region will also stay frozen with ice into Saturday evening.
  • Western Maryland/Wisp: They will get ice Saturday afternoon, then more snow returns Sunday.

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Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall Winter 2019-2020





Snowy Winters Following A Hot and Dry September


NOAA Winter Outlook Leaves Room For More Snow With Mild ‘Seasonal Average’ Temperatures

Other  Links:

See the maps for when we normally expect the first frost in this link.

Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported

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