Friday January 17 2020

The cold air arrived yesterday evening. This came with some snow squalls that coated the ground in spots. But it’s the widespread snow and ice for Saturday that is the main focus here.  This will not be a major storm, but it will impact travel in the morning for many, then the snow and ice will last the afternoon for the colder inland suburbs. I have my call for snowfall map in this post below:

Headines

• Cold air in place today (near freezing for most)
• Cold Saturday morning (20s) will chill the pavement
• Saturday Morning: Snow arrives 7 AM to 10 AM and initially will stick
• Burst of snow will drop quick coating in most areas.
• Change to icy my for many during lunchtime.
• Snow lasts longer, Ice lasts into evening in colder inland suburbs.
• Colder air returns on Sunday and will last through next week.

Morning Weather

The sloppy storm is showing up on the map this morning in the central US. That mix of snow and ice is what we expect to be here tomorrow. As I had hinted many times, computer models are suggesting the arrival time here will be earlier. I think it’s safe to say the first flakes will move in between 7 AM and 10 AM.

 

Temperatures and Wind Chill

We still have gusty winds. While the 20s and 30s have settled in, it does feel colder.

 

 

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Afternoon Temperatures 

 

Saturday Morning

It will be down into the 20s before the snow begins. This will allow for the first flakes to stick and accumulate.

 

Most Likely Storm Timeline

European ECWMF Model Simulation — slider

Tracking the arrival of snow and transition to wintry mix/freezing rain, then rain.

See the temperature plots for key times below 

 

My Call For Snowfall (and ice)

Notes:

• The timing is critical! Earlier arrival means more impact for all.
• Snow Burst or ‘Thumping’: Arrival of snow can come with a push of moderate intensity.
• The warmer Chesapeake Bay will play a role in stickage, but the initial push should coat the roads and impact travel during the morning.
• The transition from snow to sleet and freezing rain in metro areas will be between 11 AM and 2 PM. Then rain to follow before evening.
• More Snow North! The colder air will last longer (blue shading). This region will also stay frozen with ice into Saturday evening.
• Western Maryland/Wisp: They will get ice Saturday afternoon, then more snow returns Sunday.

 

Temperature Timing

—> slider