Thursday January 16 2020

Today is one of my favorite days of the year. My older son turns 14, and if you don’t remember he is the one that came up with the idea of Kid Weather App when he was in Kindergarten. That app was downloaded in over 60 countries and won many awards. It’s down for revamping at the moment, and there is more to my boy than that.  But it makes sense we have two weather stories today: A Windy Advisory today and Wintry Weather this weekend.

Wind Advisory

Winds will range from 20 mph and gust up to 50 mph in the highlighted counties. Central Maryland is not in the advisory but gusts will exceed 40 mph there.

Morning Surface Weather

Here is the pattern changer! We start the day in the upper 40s, but end the day in the 30s with wind chills in the 20s.

Strong winds with this cld front will drop our temps back to winter levels and next week will be much colder. In between, we have some snow and a wintry mix on Saturday I will discuss below. There are still details to sort out, but the mid day hours are most likely to have the impact.

Headlines:

• Today: Strong Winds gust over 40 mph, up to 50 mph in the Advisory area.
• Temperatures: Warmer this morning, Colder this afternoon
• Saturday: Snow develops during the morning to mid day. Wintry mix in the afternoon changed to rain for most by evening.
• Next Week: Much colder!

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Today Forecast

Morning

Mid Day Winds

Afternoon

Friday Morning

Snow and Wintry Mix Outlook

No that the cold air will be in place for over a day, the snow that arrives on Saturday will have a chance to stick. The issue has always been when will this arrive? This may arrive at the end or after the finish of the Maryland Super Plunge event in Annapolis, but I would still consider the impact on your plans later in the morning to early afternoon. If you live north of Baltimore, the icy rods may linger into the evening while rain spreads in metro and southern areas.

Computer Models

Classic Goldie Locks here as timing very different among these models. That is one element I am working on before I can give a snow total forecast. Compare these model timeline sliders below:

• GFS Model: Arrives earliest and brings most snow and ice
• NAM Model: Middle of the pack. Mid morning start then ending early aftenroon
• European ECWMf Model: Starts later into the afternoon with impact through the evening.

All models turn the snow and ice to rain in the metro areas and south before evening. The snow and ice will last longer north of Baltimore.

GFS Model —> slider

The model bring in the snow and mix sooner with the largest impact.

• This is the reason I do not give snow totals too soon. The timing will determine how much can stick and how long it will last.
• If you feel this has been downgraded,  that is based on your other source that jumped out too soon with snow totals. I’ve seen that for many years and why I hold off until 48 hours before the event.
• My First Call  for snow will be posted during today.

 

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

• Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

• Twitter: @JustinWeather

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WEATHER WIFE COLLECTION

• Thanks to Shannon (weather wife) for hand picking items ‘she’ wants to wear
• The Yoga Pants have side leg pocket for your phone
• The Hoodie is extra soft and has the important ‘thumb holes’

FITF Store: Weather Wife

 

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall Winter 2019-2020

 

 

Part 1: More Snow This Winter Supported By Stats

 

Part 2: Solar Minimum- Low Sunspots May Mean High Snow Totals This Winter

 

Part 3: Tropical Systems In East Asia and Atlantic Basin Hint At Winter Storm Tracks

   

 

Snowy Winters Following A Hot and Dry September

 

NOAA Winter Outlook Leaves Room For More Snow With Mild ‘Seasonal Average’ Temperatures

Other  Links:

See the maps for when we normally expect the first frost in this link.

Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported

Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.

 

Atmospheric Memory Shaped The US East Coast

Atmospheric Memory Of Hurricanes Over Thousands Of Years Shaped The Coast

 

Was Your County Not Included?

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones

 

Maryland Trek Cycle Jerseys From Hill Killer

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Shining on with Smyth and their contribution, our team has raised over $95,000 for Just In Power Kids to provide free programs for kids in and post cancer treatment.

Just In Power Kids:

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