October 17 2019

The Winter Outlook from NOAA for the 2019 to 2020 season came out today. The first thing of note is that there will be NO El Nino this winter. The ENSO (El Nino-Soputher Oscillation) pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean will remain neutral. This is NOT THE ONLY PLAYER. I will identify many others in my winter outlook in the next few weeks.

Other influences like the North Atlantic Oscillation can show us arctic outbreaks a week or two at a time, while the Madden-Julian Oscillation can determine the focus for storm patterns globally. These need to be set up during the season to track on a shorter time frame.

In my effort to share additional information, I wanted to show and explain this government winter outlook. There is also a video at the bottom of this post explaining the NOAA thinking behind their graphics.

At face value, this outlook may not be promising for fellow snow lovers with Faith in the Flakes (FITF). But NOAA did leave a nugget of hope to cover their bases. In reading these reports, we must consider the vagueness of the seasonal forecast product. It’s also important to note that within the overall trend of a season one way or another, there can easily be extremes hidden in the middle. Let me explain:

Winter 2019 to 2020 Precipitation

December to February

NOAA supports a wetter winter in our region. The odds are up to 40% that not only will we break our recent drought, but end up with more precipitation than average.

Open Window For Snow In NOAA Report:

“The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are expected”.

I wanted to share that quote, before dropping this warm temperature map. I don’t like it and I don’t buy it! But this is where just looking at graphics can leave some in despair.

Winter 2019 to 2020 Temperatures

December to February

A large part of the US (according to NOAA) is expected to trend above average temperatures this winter. They do not expect any region to be below average. Again, c

My Winter Outlook

I will have more of my forecasting techniques and personal winter outlook spread over the next few weeks. There is a lot of information and I can’t drop it all at once. Also, I am in the process of building a new website, which hopefully will be ready in the next two weeks. There is a lot of stuff I want to show you there, so I am hoping to post it when that launches.

NOAA Winter Forecast Video

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Also See:

Moderate Drought For Half of Maryland and Virginia: Drought Monitor

Many areas inland from the cities should drop into the 30s by tomorrow morning. This could do it. See the look at when we normally expect the first frost in this link.