Thursday July 11 2019

There is a lot in the weather department today to discuss. While ‘Potential’  Cyclone Two (its official name so far) is not a tropical storm yet, it should get named Barry today. The latest projections are for rapid development but a shift closer to New Orleans for landfall track. More on that below. Locally we have a strong cold front that puts much of our region under the risk for severe storms… Completely separate from the tropical system.

Severe Storm Risk

The best chance for storms to turn severe are between the mountains and the Chesapeake Bay between 2 PM and 8 PM.

For a storm to be considered severe, it must have either winds over 58 mph, large hail over 1 inch diameter, rotation with potential to drop a tornado, flash flooding, and possibly frequent lightning.  See the timeline below with specific areas highlighted

 

Flash Flood Watch

 

 

Local Weather Stats: Thursday July 11, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High:  88ºF

Record High: 100ºF in 1988

Average  Low: 67ºF

Record Low:  53ºF in 1996

Sunrise: 5:49 AM

Sunset 8:34 PM  

*Daylight = 1:05 shorter than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 79ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 

 

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Highs Thursday

 

Radar Simulation Timeline—> slider

Best guess timing

  • 2 PM to 4PM: McHenry to Hagerstown
  • 4 PM to 6 PM: Frederick, York, and Baltimore
  • 6 PM to 8 PM: Bel Air, Elkton, Annapolis
  • Evening: Eastern Shore

[metaslider id=78100]

 

 

Highs Friday

Look at the cool air in McHenry, only 69ºF. But 80s will hold in metro areas.

 

Tropical Cyclone Two- Soon To Be Barry

This storm has shown a lot of enhanced storm activity this morning on satellite. But the organization has been slow. This delay is what has changed the expectations.

Forecast Models

Intensity: Rapid development is still expected once this gets going. Gulf of Mexico waters are very warm! But there will be less time for it to grow, so at best this looks like it might reach Category 1 hurricane intensity before landfall on Saturday morning.

 

 

 

Landfall: Because it is forming slower (to this point), that will impact the track… So landfall is now expected to be farther east, just south of New Orleans on Saturday morning.

 

HWRF Forecast Model Animation 

 

Potential Track Over New Orleans

 

Will This Reach Us?

Some of the model tracks above did indicate a shift in our direction early next week. By that point it would not be tropical in nature.

Landfalling tropical systems are tough to plot out. Considering that this forecast development and landfall has already changed a lot in one day, I would not put to much stock in where it goes after landfall yet. We need this to form and do its thing, to have a better handle on the timing and then tracking.

 

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

 

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