Severe Storm Risk Upgrade Tuesday Afternoon and Night

Tuesday June 18 2019

Afternoon Update at 1:45 PM

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the Severe Storm Risk Index to Slight for our region. I know that term may be misleading, but it does suggest that more storms developing will have a chance to reach severe limits this afternoon through tonight.

Severe Storm Risk

Severe Storm Qualifier:

Winds over 58 mph
Large hail over 1 inch diameter
Isolated Tornado

Flash Flood Watch

The potential for between 1 and 3 inches or rain to lead to locally flooding is still an issue in slow moving storms… even if not severe.

Temperatures

Trying to find the old frontal boundary is not easy based on temps. I believe that is still to our north and will be sliding south to interact with our muggy environment through tonight. Most of our area is in the upper 70s to mid 80s with high humidity. It is cooler in the 60s in the western Maryland Mountains.

Visible Satellite Loop

3 Hours ending 1:30 PM EDT

Dopper Radar Snapshot

This is an important point: The cells in this image were NOT shown in the short range model forecast shown below. This means:

There is more activity sooner than expected.
The model is NOT perfect!
Use this timeline as a guide to potential timing and regions for flares ups. That means it may last beyond midnight.

Radar Simulation –> slider

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