Friday March 1 2019

The Winter Weather Advisory now includes our colder region of southern PA. This was expected as they are in the path to get a few inches of snow and some ice glaze. This will be very similar for the northern edge of Maryland counties as well. For what it’s worth- I don’t want this! I have family arriving in town from multiple states for a big weekend of events. If you are concerned about if your plans will be affected, I can relate.

When I said that March was coming in like a lion, some people took issue with me. We had an average of 2 inches of snow across our region this morning. Even though it delayed most area schools, it was not a major event. But we have another one tonight, and yet another one on Sunday that could be the largest of the bunch. So perhaps its better to say, March is coming in like a litter of cubs.

Winter Weather Advisory

This Winter Weather Advisory includes the colder northern and western counties from Baltimore:

Northern Harford, Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Washington, Allegany).
Snow and freezing rain will arrive this evening around 7 PM. Plus or minus an hour depending on your location.
The expectation is for maybe a little snow and up to 2 tenths of an inch of ice.
Southern Pennsylvania recently added. This includes Lancaster, York, Adams Counties and points west. This region can get 1 to 3 inches of snow where it remains all snow, but also a glaze of ice.

Baltimore, I-95 and southward this should be just a chilly rain.

New Model Snow Forecast Maps are below

Was Your County Not Included?

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones.

The Set Up

The track has been laid down for a few systems to ride along. The next one is coming up from the south. It looks like rain, but it will catch up to air that is just barely cold enough inland to turn to freezing rain or snow. Considering that we have snow on the ground, this will help to chill the air this evening when it arrives.

Radar Simulation Timelines

The Winter Weather Advisory begins at 7 PM and most of the area will get in on the action around that time or within an hour or so.

This should end before sunrise… But there may be a light glaze of ice or minor snow to clean up.

HRRR Model —> slider

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Temperatures at Midnight

The cold advisory areas will be within a degree or two of freezing.

NAM Model —> slider

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How Much Snow?

Please see this as a rough gauge. I am leaning on the lower end of this.

Where it stays snow I think it will be 1 to 3 inches.
The ice potential is up to 0.20″

NAM 3 KM Model

This has the location of the snow on target with the advisories… But the totals seem a little high. I prefer to expect 1 to 3 inches.

HRRR Model

This appears to be much farther south… I think this is overdone for MD where there should be more icy mix or just freezing rain.

More Snow Sunday?

This next storm will follow a similar path, and be a little stronger. This is not a lock by any means… So we need to track this closely.

Please consider these notes then see the animations and two model snapshots below

The rain/snow line will cut through our region. This is the hard part as to who will be affected.
The European Model keeps the normally colder suburbs in the snow, but rain elsewhere.
The American GFS Model shows snow for more of central Maryland
Both show the freezing line north, so it may be a slushy snow with temps above freezing.
Monday morning should turn colder, so it is possible to be wet then some freezing before schools open

Snapshots

American GFS shows more snow