Sunday November 18 2018

Today will be quiet and mild, which is great news in Baltimore for the Ravens game. Then we shift our focus to the Thanksgiving week that will feature a lot of changes. The first system on Monday night wil be benign with light rain, but you may run into snow near State College PA. Then temperatures TANK on Thanksgiving. Turkey Trot runs in the morning will be in the 20s for many and the afternoon will struggle to reach freezing around the cities. At least cooking in the oven or lighting up the fireplace will be justified to warm the house.

The next event will be Thanksgiving weekend. At this time models are showing rain, but I hesitate to confirm as cold air has tended to hang on longer. There will be a developing storm on the east coast that should start with us on the warm end… But signals pointing to a major pattern change beginning then and lasting into the start of December.

Local Weather Stats For November 18 in Baltimore

Average High: 56ºF

Record High: 78ºF in 1938

Average Low: 36ºF

Record Low: 20ºF in 1959

*Record Snow: Trace in 2008

Sunrise: 6:53 AM

Sunset 4:49 PM

*Daylight = 1:48 shorter than yesterday

*Bay Water Temperature = 48ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

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Morning Temperatures

Sunday Afternoon High Temperatures

Monday-Tuesday —> slider

Light rain with snow in central PA

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Temperature Outlook

Very Cold Thanksgiving Then Pattern Change

Both Thanksgiving Thursday and Black Friday look. dry cold. A mild trend ahead of the next storm is why we expect RAIN over the holiday weekend. That coastal storm looks warm here, but it will be a game changer…

Thanksgiving Weekend Storm —> slider

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Outlook

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NOA) is and index I discussed in my winter outlook. This is a measure of the pressure pattern in the North Atlantic that can play a big role in our weather on the US east coast. A negative value will translate to stormy and colder weather … often. So check out the long range projections on the Euro and GFS (America) Models.

Both stay in the rand of -1 to -3, which is why I mentioned this last night. There is a lot of hype in the weather community about the potential for one or multiple storms between the week AFTER Thanksgiving and early December