Wednesday May 16 2018

There is now more support for the heavy rain I mentioned lasting for the rest of the week. A formal Flood Watch has been issued for our region west of the Chesapeake Bay until Friday evening. The conservative forecast is a general 3 to 5 inches of rain. Considering the 6 inches that fell in Frederick last night, it is easy to presume that we could easily end up on the higher side in training bands or stalled cells.  We can make jokes about building an arc, but this is a serious set up and many basements will flood in addition to streams, roads, and maybe even pools.

 

 

Close View Visible Satellite 2 Hour Loop

Radar: 4 Hour Loop Through 3:25 PM

Heavy rain and some storms have been building in Virginia and North Carolina this afternoon. All of that moisture is heading north and will be here tonight into Thursday morning.

 

 

Radar Simulation —> slider through Thursday Morning

[metaslider id=62206]

 

My thoughts: 

I have had many questions about school plans, parties and travel. At this point, I would consider a plan B. My kids events for school and baseball today were cancelled. I get the frustration. But even between rain bands, the ground will be soggy and maybe muddy. It will be like that at least into Saturday… See the animation below…

Here is a quick look at the set up and radar simulation through Thursday morning. Below is the set up and storm animation that shows the pattern lasting into the weekend.

Rainfall Animation

 

 

5 Day Rain Forecast

 

 

Shine On

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