Noon Thursday October 6 – The latest update from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Matthew with sustained winds of 140 around the eye wall. Conditions are favorable for some more strengthening as the eye pulls away from Nassau over more open water before the mainland approach tonight. The impact will begin tonight and last all day Friday into Saturday as this moves through north Florida, Georgia, and turns away from South Carolina. The hurricane force wind field now extends 60 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds reach 160 miles away. As the Florida Governor said, this is a storm that will kill! Heavy rain accounts for about 25% of deaths in land fallings storms. More than 50% from storm surge, the wall of water pushed inland at landfall. Give the track of the eye along the coast, there will be a shift of winds pushing water onshore, and also away from the coast on the back side.
Here is a quick look at the wind model hour by hour. More info on the storm surge and warnings below.
–> Slider Hour by Hour Winds
Wave Model: Over 30 Ft offshore
National Hurricane Center Updated Warning and Track
The forecast still shows a turn away from South Carolina, but storm surge will still be an impact there.
Storm Surge: Note that this is relative to the coastline and lunar tidal cycles
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Central and Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including portions of the St. Johns River...6 to 9 ft Edisto Beach to South Santee River...3 to 5 ft Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 3 ft
Watches and Warnings
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * North of Golden Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina * Lake Okeechobee A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Golden Beach * Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward * Florida Bay * Anclote River to Suwannee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Chokoloskee to Anclote River
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