3:30 PM Wednesday October 5 – Hurricane Matthew has now been a major hurricane for longer than any other in the Atlantic over the past 50 years. The latest update has winds of 120 mph and the latest model tracks are not good for central and northern Florida, justifying their caution and State Of Emergency. I want to point out that there is a split now among the computer models past day 5, but many still loop the storm back around for a second hit over southern Florida. That is in response to Tropical Storm Nicole (winds 50 mph) and a blocking High to the north.
I don’t want to get into specifics now. This is just a quick update on the models.
I want to make the point clear again, long range commuter modeling is far from perfect. So the loop here is based on conditions right now and projections, but all could change. Remember a few days ago many models has this going up the east coast. But the latest trend has been this loop, seen here on the GFS Model slider.
Note the GFS Model does bring the storm onshore south of Cape Canaveral and then exiting near Jacksonville…. only to hug the South Carolina coast and loop. The NAM Model kept the storm offshore this morning.
The National Hurricane Center shows a hint of the loop going out to Day 5
Latest Spaghetti Model Plots
I will have more insight with the evening update.
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