Monday July 18 – We have another cold front on the way today. Ahead of it, the heat and some humidity will surge back in. Temperatures will be in the mid 90s, and with the dew points approaching 70°F it may feel like close to 100°F. The fuel will be in place and the cold front will be a catalyst. Will it play out? That is the question, and as the radar simulations suggests, the storms will break up east of the mountains. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk of severe storms in the mountains, but east of I-81 it’s only marginal. This includes damaging wind, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. Wind direction is a key element to the storm threat in central Maryland. See that below:
Simulated Radar –> slider
Severe Storms Threat Based On Wind Direction
The overall wind flow today should be from the south to southwest ahead of the front. However, along the Chesapeake Bay, a bay breeze will develop that can locally shift the wind from the southeast. That is a critical element that can created a convergence boundary and enhance the storms along I-95. That is what happened this past Saturday, and can sometimes overproduce what even the high resolution model suggests.
Severe Risk Elements:
Event though central Maryland is under a marginal threat for severe storms, I would watch the local wind direction mid afternoon to see if the risks shift to Baltimore and Annapolis.
Brief Outlook:
Wednesday and Thursday= 80s
Friday into next weekend = Mid to upper 90s again
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