Timeline For Rain Or Storm Threat This Afternoon

11:30 AM Tuesday June 7 – This is a brief update on the threat of rain as a cold front passes this afternoon. As of late morning, there is not action locally on the radar, but a line of clouds with the front is developing as seen on the visible satellite. This boundary will be the trigger to ignite showers early to mid afternoon. These are just scattered showers that may have lighting, but not expected to be severe. The risk increases south of PA, and more so south of Baltimore.I would give the risk of rain between 30% and 50%, but still worth a mention. I want to make two points clear:

1. Wind direction is key with most shower events in central Maryland. A wind direction from the southeast brings the higher chance of rain or storms, while a southwest to west wind often adds dry air an tears them apart. So far we have a westerly wind, so the radar simulation below may be a but exaggerated.
2. Do NOT use the simulation as precision. It is best considered as a gauge for area and timing.

Here I would suggest the best ‘chance’ for rain or storms along I-95 would be between 1 and 4 PM, but the threat will linger into the evening along Rt 50 and into southern Maryland.