May 25 2016 – Yesterday was Baltimore’s first day in the 80s all month. That warm will continue and today will be rain free. Good news, right? I must add that there is an air quality alert and the pollen levels will surge thanks to the light winds and stagnant air. No way do I want to dampen spirits in one of the coolest Mays on record. But it does set us up for the next disturbance that will arrive Thursday and Friday. That will increase our chance of thunderstorms, but of the scattered-pop up variety. So before you think any of us can pin them down, we can’t. At least until the storms start to form. In fact, I want to show you two different models (below) tracking the storms to see how they differ. Also, the outlook for Memorial Day does not look as ominous, but still dependent on how the Low in the southeast US behaves. Overall a good stretch of weather, even at the beaches despite the chilly water.
Scattered Storms: GFS Model –> slider
This is a lower resolution and only shows snapshots every 6 hours.
Scattered Storms: NAM/WRF Model –> slider
This tracks a cluster of storms between Washington and Baltimore. It is a higher resolution with 3 hour snapshots, but still subject to change based on where the storm actually forms.
[metaslider id=37283]
Memorial Day
The location and strength of the Low in the southeast looks like it will have less influence on our weather, but we will still have a damp onshore flow. That means the threat for storms developing. What to watch for here will be the focus of the southeast wind. More wind would be more clouds and rain. Less, then we end up with a warmer day with less rain.
Temperature Outlook
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