March 17- Happy St. Patrick’s Day! Fog is an issue around the Bay and Eastern Shore this morning. It looks like the weather will honor the holiday with patches of green on the radar this afternoon. As colder air works back into our region, showers will develop this afternoon. The outlook this weekend has more support for snow on Sunday, but there are still few possibilities how this will develop. It might possibly begin earlier- Saturday. But with most falling on the first day of Spring, I need to reinforce that looking at snow totals is premature. Stickage will not behave like mid-winter, so there will be waste flakes. Then the total on the grass is most likely, but for the roads to collect any depends on the timing of the day. More on that below.
Rainy Afternoon? Simulated Radar
Still Mild: High Temperatures
Weekend Outlook:
I have been suggesting that since we had nearly 70°F on Christmas, we should have snow by Easter. I may be just a week off. But my suggestion about the modeling is showing up. The GFS Mode has a tendency lately to verify farther north with storms. It now shows that bias, which brings in the snow Saturday night into Sunday. But, even though earlier, it would be the weaker of the two solutions.
The Canadian (and European) Model shows the Sunday arrival. That would appear more offshore, but actually result in a stronger band of snow based on the location of the upper level energy. It all hinges on the upper level pattern seen here.
Timing and Stickage:
We’ve had snow in spring before. Last year we had it on the first day of spring, and we have had it into April as well. But the ground is warmer and retains more heat from a higher sun angle. So it is hard to get stickage. We would need heavy intensity, and most likely snow falling at night and early morning have the biggest impact. So at this point, I don’t think it is responsible to discuss accumulation. We saw this with the Friday March 4 snow two weeks ago. It stuck everywhere but the roads, and it was below freezing! This time, I think mid 30s might be the coldest we get.
Compare the GFS and Canadian Model solutions here. Sunday will show snow, and the GFS lingers the upper level energy with showers or flurries into Monday, at least to add ambiance for the teachers just getting their FITF shirts now 🙂 I may make my first suggestion of snowfall tomorrow if the earlier arrival be more likely.
GFS Model
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Canadian Model
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You can still show off your preference for snow all year: FITF Shirts And Snow Sticks
Temperature Outlook
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