Thursday March 3 3:50PM – We are still under a Winter Weather Advisory between 10 PM through 10 AM Friday. You may have noticed the clouds thicken in the past few hours. The radar looks very impressive this afternoon as a complex system arrives from the west, but a new system will form off of the coast.
Update at 4:20 PM –
Reports of flurries in Montgomery County a few hours ahead of schedule. Temps are still too warm for stickage, so roads should not have a problem during rush hour.
All week I’ve been tracking the timing and it has been speeding up. Now it appears the snow will develop in central Maryland before midnight. In fact the latest HRRR model (high resolution rapid refresh) shown below points to a band of snow breaking out between 8 PM and 10 PM. The initial band, should it not be virga and reach the ground, will be flurries. Also, the temperatures will be above freezing, so likely result in melting with the initial snow. This band lifts north, and that is when colder air generates on the north and west side of Baltimore. Then, by morning the coastal system takes over.
The real question will be how much can stick. Temperatures today have gotten close to 40F along with the roads soaking up sunshine. This afternoon the Maryland CHART road sensors all showed pavement temperatures above 50°F. It will cool down after sunset. But, some of that energy stays in the pavement. Air temperatures will be borderline with freezing on the north side of the Baltimore beltway, but warmer on the south side. So while the potential is still present for a general 1 to 3 inches of snow, I have a hard time seeing all of laying and staying. At least in the city and southward. Here is the latest radar simulation. Please see my notes below:
Simulated Radar
Temperature Snapshots:
I can not suggest what will happen to area schools or your commute to work. At this point I can only say this is worth paying attention to. That is not a cop out, but rather the complication of air temperatures, road temperatures, and how much chemicals your local municipality puts down on the ground.
Also:
- Most of my contracting clients are treating this as a salting event. They usually don’t drop plows until there are over 2 inches of snow.
- My school clients are prepared to make their call by 5 AM, as they usually do. We will know at 5 AM what condition the roads are in, and there should be no surprises for the rest of the morning.
- The heaviest snow during Friday morning will be on the Delmarva… But with temperatures above freezing. It will accumulated on the grass, but the road stickage is questionable.
- Should the snow linger into the daylight hours, even on the Eastern Shore where it will be heavier… There will not be stickage after 10 AM due to the battle with March solar radiation and temperatures above freezing.
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