StormRiskFeb24February 24 6 AM Update- Fatal severe storms already ripped through the deep south Tuesday and overnight. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has 30 reports of tornadoes (some of which might be duplicates), but shows the energy with the system. At least 3 people have been killed as a result with the search on for many missing that might be trapped under debris.  Temperatures reached the 80s on the warm side of the system, with snow and 30s on the cold side.  The storm line has charged into Florida this morning, and will move up the east coast this afternoon. The bullseye is closer, and as I have shown with a few recent storm systems… the trend is to push the storm track farther north.

Add in a faster arrival, and this now includes central Maryland in the ‘slight risk’ zone today. This is because strong mid level winds will tap into more heat mid to late afternoon. We are still under a Flood Watch for heavy rain on top of soggy ground and close to maxed out waterways.

While thunderstorms have been part of our forecast, the risk here suggests that some, not all, may contain winds over 60 mph, large hail over 1 inch in diameter, and an isolated tornado.

Wind: Gale Warnings posted on the coast. Small Craft Advisories on the Chesapeake Bay. Inland winds will increase to over 30 mph mid day and this afternoon.  See the storm and simulated radar timeline sliders below.

RadarWed6AMQuick Forecast Notes:

  • Morning Fog
  • Rain most of the day
  • High Temperatures in the mid 60s
  • Winds increase over 30 mph
  • Thunderstorms developing lunch time through evening
  • Severe Storm Risk 3 PM to 8 PM


Compare the storm activity map from Tuesday

Screen Shot2016-02-24 05_12_29

Storm Track: Mid Level Winds

Peak winds will be mid afternoon through evening. This is fuel for storms to turn severe.

[metaslider id=34800]

Rain Timeline: Simulated Radar

Strong thunderstorms expected between 3 PM and 8 PM

[metaslider id=34788]


High Temperatures

Screen Shot2016-02-24 05_32_41


Temperature Outlook:

Winter is not done, but it is not showing up much in the next week to 10 days. Only a brief cool down Friday and Saturday. I expect another cold shot building in the second week to mid March.


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