February 15 5:50 AM Update – Light snow had moved through early this morning and dropped a coating of snow in central Maryland. It wasn’t heavy but due to the cold air and ground, everything that fell stuck. Steady snow remains in southern Maryland and Virginia. The air temperature is so cold, the snow has been fluffy, but stickage everywhere. Note the surface weather map with High Pressure spotted in two locations. This is the point I was going to highlight this morning. Which one takes over will determine the ultimate storm track. If the north one dominates, the cold air will hold longer and push the track east. If the southern one dominates off the coast, then warmer air will filter in faster.
This morning snapshot shows the main band of snow staying in the southern part of our region. This is why snow totals will be higher south of Baltimore. Note the cold temperatures. A little bit of snow has cause big traffic problems with stickage and compacting snow caking ice on the roads.
Expanded Warning/Advisory
The Winter Storm Warning expanded through southern Maryland. The Winter Weather Advisory time was extended later this across Delmarva. This is a signal that the cold air will hold longer. So even the radar simulation below might be premature with some of the change over to rain.
This radar simulation shows that there will be some more light snow trying to move back in, but there is a strong block to the north. Eventually the surge from the south will push moderate snow and ice northward during the afternoon and evening. Here is a look at the latest simulated radar, National Weather Service Regional Snow Potential, and my final call for snowfall map.
Note:
- This is just a gauge not gospel. This model updates and fine tunes the expectation every hour.
- There may be subtle changes during the day.
- The ground is so cold, all that falls will stick
- Main snow and ice will be mid afternoon and evening.
- Cold should hold longer: The frozen ground alone will keep ice threat around longer this evening
- Warming tonight: Likely we all turn to rain before Tuesday morning
Snow Potential
National Weather Service Zone Forecasts
My Final Call
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