February 15 4:50 PM Update – Snow has changed to freezing rain or sleet in many parts as warmer air advances north at cloud level. The thing is, the ground and surface air is well below freezing. That is what I was discussion for a few days, as the cold holds in this damming set up between the Chesapeake Bay and the mountains. FITF is fun, but nothing nice about ice! Snow flakes often get larger right before changing to sleet and freezing rain. That is your first signal. Rain will fall from the clouds, but freeze on contact and build up ice. This is a bad combination and very difficult for models to depict a thaw line. However I am showing the attempt by the HRRR Model radar simulation below. Below is a look at how much ice may accumulate and some quick notes. Many areas under a Warning or Advisory might get a new statement from The National Weather Service. The issue formal alerts, all I can do is share my thoughts and forecast as I see it.
Radar Simulation: Ice and Thaw Timeline Suggestion (slider–>)
This is a gauge of the expected icing and thaw. Each model run has delayed the thaw line a little, so take this with a grain of salt. Notice the legend on the right showing the amount per each hour.
Notes:
There will be a gradual thaw, but it will take all night. Most of us will see an improvement when we wake up, but how much ice has caked up and needed to be chipped away or melted will be an issue. As we take a look at the potential ice accumulation map here, you will notice the potential of over 1/4 inch inland from the Chesapeake Bay. That is enough to take down some trees and power lines, besides the road issue. There is not promise of problems, but the chances are good. Other highlights:
- Freezing Rain will get heavy around midnight
- Most areas will thaw before sunrise.
- The precipitation should stop, but fog could linger at daybreak.
- Air temperatures will warm but the ground can remain frozen for many hours later
- Impact on Schools: That is specific to each area and how the roads are cleared.
- Travel: Icing over night. Main roads likely wet where treated. But side roads, sidewalks, etc. will ice quickly. Especially when precipitation is lighter.
- Heavier rain during Tuesday could lead to flooding. So the storm will have one more thing to throw at us.
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Winter Storm Warning and Advisory Still In Place
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