February 14 – A Winter Storm Warning (pink) has been posted for Monday into Tuesday for areas that should remain colder for longer and add ice on top of snow. The Winter Weather Advisory (purple) includes areas that will have impact snow developing Monday, plus some ice Monday night, with a gradual change over to rain on Tuesday. The National Weather Service color coding is normally not like this, but you can believe it was to celebrate Valentine’s Day if you like 🙂
This is a quick interim forecast to highlight the general expectations and show you a comparison of snow and ice forecast maps. I have my first call for snowfall map (I shared yesterday) below for comparison. I will post a final map this evening. Just for planning purposes, here are the highlights first. Please note the computer model and National Weather Service forecast maps below are just a gauge. I want you to see the similarities and differences to track for yourself.
Notes:
- Snow will begin Monday west and south of Washington in the morning. It will grow widespread afternoon and evening.
- This arctic air mass is so dry, the first few hours it shows on radar may remain dry at the surface (virga)
- More snow could accumulate west and south of the cities due to arrival time.
- The Chesapeake Bay has more ice on it now, so less warming north of the Bay Bridge. That might delay warming
- Track appears to be a hybrid between Canadian and GFS models I’ve been showing.
- Worst snow conditions: Monday afternoon/evening.
- Change to Ice: Monday evening from south to north.
- Ice lingers into Tuesday morning near Baltimore and west/northern suburbs.
- Frozen ground will hold ice longer even as air wars above freezing.
- Tuesday: Likely to turn to rain in most metro areas. Ice remains inland by mountains.
- Total accumulation will vary, but many in the 2″ to 4″ range.
My first call map will be adjust, but compare to these model and NWS maps for now.
Computer Model Forecast Snow Maps
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I will be updating my map this evening. This was my forecast from yesterday.
National Weather Service Snow and Ice Maps
Baltimore Washington Region
South/Central Pennsylvania
This snow map looks a little low. There is indication on the modeling that the delayed onset of snow later in the day and change over at night will limit snowfall.. but this may need a little fine tuning. I will update my forecast later.
Mount Holly NJ Region
Wakefield Virginia-Sothern Delmarva Region
Should have a faster change over to rain near the water, so less icing Monday night.
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