February 13 – We are in the midst of our coldest days of the season, and still have a Wind Chill Advisory through Sunday. But we must look just past Valentines Day to Monday for the next event. Having a Presidents Day with snow is almost like saying the sun will rise tomorrow. A Winter Storm Watch has been posted by the National Weather Service for counties in Maryland west of Baltimore, and northern Virginia. This is just a ‘watch’ for the potential of heavy snow and icing. I expect that is the watch is not extended east, metro Baltimore and northern Delmarva will be under a Winter Weather Advisory when issued tomorrow. Also- The Pennsylvania Counties not included now is just a demonstration that NWS needs to coordinate better. They should be in the same ‘watch’ and as seen in my first call map below… will get a decent amount of snow.
Below is my first call for snowfall, and another look at two models I have been tracking. It looks like the Canadian GEM’s colder solution is the one to follow per my suggestion the past few days. I see the GFS Model trending back east and a little colder, but it still has questions. My first call for snowfall map is below as well. Bur first my main points:
- Monday is nearly guaranteed. The Tuesday part is the big question.
- Cold Will Hold: Arctic Air Masses often linger longer than models suggest.
- Bay Icing Up: The near record cold is chilling down and freezing the water on the northern Chesapeake Bay. That will limit the warming influence with wind shift ahead of the next storm.
- Atmospheric Memory: The track of recent storms has left a weakness in the atmosphere that should pull the storm to the coast..
My First Call For Snowfall
Monday snow is a given. It will last all day. If there is a change over to ice or rain, it will begin Monday evening. This is just for Monday… and depending on if or when there is a change over, I’ve left the upside potential in the typical colder west/north areas in purple with a chance to get over 5 inches.
Comparing Model Tracks and Timelines:
Canadian Model:
I am showing the colder run first because I think this model performs better with cold patterns. This shows a stronger block in New England. Thus, the next storm track is farther south and the cold holds longer. This follows with light snow Wednesday.
GFS Model:
This has been the best performer over the past month, including the blizzard. But I am not certain it is handling the arctic air the best. It had a major computer upgrade, yet might still be pushing the cold air out too soon. Notice the High Pressure Monday farther south than the Canadian GEM. This allows the storm to cut farther west and be warmer for us. This still shows snow most of Monday, increasing towards evening. But a shorter period of ice and then rain Tuesday. The second system on Wednesday is farther north as wetter for us as well.
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