February 11 – The first of two arctic blasts is already here. You will feel it today, and the wind chill will be the focus. The second blast this weekend will be the one that one that could challenge record cold on Valentines Day. While I already wrote about multiple snow chances, the chance of snow on Presidents Day should not be a surprise to any of us. I still want to highlight that the storm next week still has not formed yet. In fact, as I have been paying most of my attention to the GFS Model it continues to prove my theory true. The track keeps shifting west. At some point it will lock in, but an extreme cold air mass usually hangs on longer than forecast. So we need to consider not the rain or snow lines showing up on forecast maps now, but that ice might be a factor Tuesday.
Arctic Blast: Snow Squalls
The arrival of the arctic air and approach of the Polar Vortex towards New England, will bring a push of snow. First it will be with the air mass itself. Then the long stream snow bands that develop off of the Great Lake. The upper air pattern supports the survival of snow showers into central Maryland and Delmarva into Saturday afternoon.
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Quick Notes:
Things to keep in mind:
- Today: Afternoon in the 20s, Wind Chill In the teens
- Saturday: The high temperature will be at midnight. Falling temps in the teens for the afternoon. Wind Chill between 0°F and -25°F
Records?
- Saturday Feb 13: Record Low = 1°F in 1983; Coldest Daily High 10°F in 1899
- Sunday Feb 14: Record Low = -2°F in 1979; Coldest Daily High 18°F in 1916
Storm Next Week:
- Temperatures on Tuesday depend on storm track.
- Monday- Light snow
- Tuesday- The main event! Snow, Ice, and coastal Rain. Track can not be known before the storm forms
- Cold often holds longer after extreme cold air settles in
- Ice might be more widespread
Before looking at the storm for next week, I want to show the temperature outlook.
Next Storm:
This is the latest GFS Model… which has pulled the track farther west by 100 miles or so each run. This is NOT the final track or set up… But now I hope you understand why I refuse to discuss snow amounts this far away. There is still a lot to sort out with a storm that has not even formed yet.
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Keep checking back for updates. There will be a lot on the way with snow squalls and near record cold before the potential coastal storm next week. I will pass along any updates as I see them
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