February 3 – Off the bat I want to say that Baltimore will not get the record high today. It shouldn’t be close! Temps are stuck in the 40s, 20 degrees cooler than expected. How could it be so wrong: The Cold Air Dam! I miss judged it, but it makes sense now and holding strong with fog now. The partially frozen northern Chesapeake Bay plus snow pack holding in northern Maryland have acted as a block to deflect the warm air to the east. Look at these temperatures and you can see the 60s made it to Philadelphia! The Delmarva has cooler spots near the water, but overall that is what is slowing the entire system down and will increase the rainfall. Our Flood Watch continues well after the rain ends. Pay attention for any Flood Warnings that may be announced. I will post them on Twitter and Facebook when I get them.
The simulated radar shows a rain timeline that lasts longer. In fact we can see waves of energy resurge the rain as it appears to move on. We will continue to get flooding downpours, but the chance of thunder is lower west of I-95. It will be active where the air is warmer though. In fact, some boomers could develop this evening and tonight on the lower Eastern Shore. Check it out:
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Rain totals in the 1 to 2 inch rain could have higher amounts.
Note: This slow down could play a role in the next developing storm. So it will be worth seeing the progressing and then outlook into early next week. That is what I always say we need to see how the first system behaves before we can get a good handle on the next one in the pipeline.
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